• WR Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions (-115): There isn’t a player suiting up for the Chargers tonight who can even hope to lock Hill up in one-on-one coverage.
• QB Tua Tagovailoa over 22.5 completions (-120): Tua has torn apart bottom-ranked defensive units with a quick underneath approach that leads to a high volume of pass attempts and completions. That should once again be the expected game script tonight.
Expect the unexpected in this AFC showdown between two playoff hopefuls in what should play out as one of the most entertaining primetime games this season. Let’s dive into the matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME LINES
After entering the regular season as a trendy Super Bowl pick, the Chargers have once again turned in the most perplexing season of any team and currently find themselves on the outside looking in.
The main reason is obvious: They are the most injured team in the NFL and haven’t seen any sort of improvement from their offseason acquisitions on the defensive side of the football.
In contrast, Miami has potentially arrived ahead of schedule, with Tua Tagovailoa boasting the highest PFF passing grade in the NFL and the combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle looking like the best wide receiver duo in the NFL.
The spread movement shows the two distinct paths both teams have taken this year. The preseason spread landed at -5.5 toward the Chargers, but the lookahead line showed a seven-point swing to +1.5. It didn’t stop there, as we have bounced between +3.5 and +3 all week, with a juiced +3.5 being the consensus number as we head toward kickoff.
PFF's betting model finds a little value on the Chargers, but this very much looks like a spot where a better in-game spread across key numbers could easily happen. If the Dolphins are up early, we should see some prints of +7.5, and given the success the Chargers have in at least making things interesting when coming from behind, this could be a reasonable spot to play in-game.
No real value shows on any of the game markets, but plenty of value exists on player props.
Picks: Pending in-game
PLAYER PROPS
WR Tyreek Hill: Over 6.5 receptions (-115)
After going over his reception prop in seven of eight games to start the season, Hill cooled off and is now 8-of-14 to the over on this prop. The hot start has led to a two-reception increase from where his numbers sat to start the season, but his usage in this offense offers plenty of opportunities to accumulate yards after the catch.
Over 45% of his targets have come within nine yards of the line of scrimmage, and if you expect the Dolphins to be up early, we should see an uptick in long-handoff-type plays to Tyreek Hill that count toward his reception prop.
On top of the usage, this is also a matchup play, with Hill having the third-best matchup of any wide receiver this week according to PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart. Put simply, there isn’t a player suiting up for the Chargers tonight who can even hope to lock up Tyreek Hill in one-on-one coverage.
With Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel showing his playcalling ability every single week, expect a number of easy touches for Hill in any game script, making this prop the best spot to play on Sunday night.
QB Tua Tagovailoa: Over 22.5 completions (-120)
The other matchup play to make is Tua Tagovailoa over completions against a banged-up Chargers secondary. Tua has gone over in four of 10 games this season, but removing the one he left due to injury, this prop has been heavily dependent on the opposing matchup.
Tua has torn apart bottom-ranked defensive units with a quick underneath approach that leads to a high volume of pass attempts and completions. That should once again be the expected game script and only really depends on the Chargers making enough plays offensively to keep this game competitive.
If that happens, Tagovailoa should easily eclipse this completion prop number given his adjusted completion percentage this year and the matchup that won’t cause him any problems.
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