• WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs — over 0.5 rush yards: Of Xavier Worthy’s 11 carries this season, he has gained positive yardage on nine, contributing to his 74.6 PFF rushing grade.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs (-4) [Total: 43]
Game Overview
The Sunday slate wraps up with a high-powered AFC West showdown between two postseason hopefuls: the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs.
In their Week 4 meeting, the Chargers jumped out to an early 10-0 lead in the first quarter, only to allow 17 unanswered points and go scoreless for three straight quarters. The game was tied heading into the fourth, but Kansas City clamped down on defense, holding Los Angeles to just 1.9 yards per play and an 0-for-4 mark on late-down conversions. The Chiefs ultimately pulled away, resulting in a push for bettors at the closing 7-point spread.
Since that matchup, the trajectories of these teams in betting markets have diverged. The Chargers have posted a 6-2 record against the spread since Week 5, including a 3-1 mark on the road. However, while they trend positively in covering spreads, they’ve struggled to close gaps against quality opponents, holding a 0-2-1 record as underdogs.
On the other hand, the Chiefs have consistently found ways to win games but have faltered in betting markets, with their last cover coming in Week 7. They’ve now missed six straight covers, resulting in a 3-6-1 record against the spread as favorites. Notably, most of those ATS losses have come with significant spreads of seven points or more. When the line falls to 6.5 points or fewer, Kansas City holds a 3-1 record against the spread.
This game features two of the league’s most talented quarterbacks, with Justin Herbert (86.9 grade, 4th) and Patrick Mahomes (85.3 grade, 7th) both ranking in the top seven in PFF's quarterback grades this season. Expect another showcase of high-level quarterback play in this divisional clash.
WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 0.5 rush yards (+105) — 14.9% PFF betting model edge
Although the first-round draft pick's production and usage have faced heightened scrutiny, Worthy is starting to find his rhythm and carve out a role in this offense. Over the last three games, he has recorded 15 touches, tying Travis Kelce for the second-most on the team.
Andy Reid continues to incorporate Worthy into the running game in creative ways, giving the talented receiver more opportunities to get the ball in space. Worthy has logged a carry in eight of his 11 games this season, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt. Of his 11 carries, he has gained positive yardage on nine, contributing to his 74.6 PFF rushing grade.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.