PFF breaks down Week 16's Sunday Night Football matchup by looking at both teams' records, key trends and a game overview before delivering the best bet backed by PFF's trusted betting model.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) vs Dallas Cowboys [Total: 48.5]
Game Overview
The Week 16 Sunday slate wraps up with an intriguing NFC matchup between two teams in very different situations—yet both excelling in recent betting markets.
Tampa Bay has officially taken control of the NFC South from Atlanta, riding an impressive four-game winning streak that includes three road victories. Their Week 15 dismantling of the Chargers as 3-point underdogs underscored their momentum. The Buccaneers are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last six games and 5-2 ATS on the road this season.
While Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers‘ offense have earned deserved praise for their recent performances, the defense has quietly risen to prominence. Since Week 12, Tampa’s defense has produced the league’s second-best mark in EPA allowed per play.
Home-field advantage may help Dallas counter a strong opponent, but the Cowboys have struggled in front of their fans, posting a 1-6 ATS record at home. Though they’ve shown some recent promise with a 3-1 ATS mark over their last four games, their time with Cooper Rush under center has been inconsistent. Since Rush took over in Week 9, Dallas has gone just 3-4 ATS.
The Cowboys’ saving grace has been their rejuvenated defense, bolstered by Micah Parsons’ return in Week 10. Since then, the unit has earned the fourth-highest overall defensive grade (73.0) in the league.
While the Cowboys haven't been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, they face an uphill battle—both against the Buccaneers and in the NFC standings.
WR Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 37.5 Receiving & Rushing yards (-115)
The first-year wideout has quickly gained the trust of both Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers‘ offense with his recent breakout performances. Before Week 14, McMillan had just 13 receptions for 145 yards. However, over the past two weeks, he has exploded for nine catches, 134 yards, and three touchdowns. During this stretch, McMillan has averaged 2.44 yards per route run, recorded five explosive plays, and earned a 23.6% threat percentage.
Dallas continues to search for answers at cornerback opposite DaRon Bland following the season-ending injury to Trevon Diggs. Amani Oruwariye stepped into the role last week but struggled, surrendering three receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown while earning a 50.9 PFF coverage grade.
If the Cowboys opt to rely on Oruwariye again, expect Mayfield to attack the vulnerable corner with his emerging young receiver.
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