• RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans — over 18.5 carries: The former Bengals running back racked up 30 carries on his way to 159 yards and a score in Week 1. Over 100 yards of that came after contact, with the veteran averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Mixon played a key role in keeping the Texans’ offense on track, converting a first down or touchdown on 30% of his rushes.
• Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud vs. Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams: The bright lights of Sunday Night Football shine on a quarterback duel between two of the league’s brightest young stars — the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year and the most recent No. 1 overall pick.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans (-6.5) [Total: 45.5]
Game Overview
The bright lights of Sunday Night Football shine on a quarterback duel between two of the league’s brightest young stars. On one side of the field, we have C.J. Stroud, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. On the other, we have Caleb Williams, the first overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Williams struggled to gain footing at the helm of this Bears offense in his regular-season debut, as first-year players tend to do. On 35 dropbacks, he managed less than 100 passing yards, averaging just 3.2 yards per attempt, the lowest among Week 1 starters.
Williams even struggled from a clean pocket, grading in the 13th percentile, a far cry from his 91st-percentile college performance in the same situation. He’ll need to return to that form to rebound in Week 2.
Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud delivered a solid Week 1 performance but got away with a few key plays that could have shifted the outcome in a tightly contested matchup. The Colts pressured Stroud effectively, racking up five sacks, tied for the second-most in Week 1. That pressure sped up the second-year QB's processing, leading to two turnover-worthy plays that just escaped the defense’s grasp.
Stroud could face similar issues this week, as Matt Eberflus' defense made a strong impression in Week 1. The Bears' pass rush generated the league's fourth-highest pass-rush win rate (55.3%) and pass-rush productivity (30.3). They harassed Titans QB Will Levis with blitzes and simulated pressures, turning pressure into a trio of late, back-breaking turnovers.
Week One
Tyrique Stevenson Pick Six (1)
pic.twitter.com/fwiQgckgX8— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVids) September 8, 2024
In a game of inches, where victory is found within the margins, the turnover battle will mean everything in a tough-fought matchup like this.
RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: Over 18.5 carries (-107, 3.0% PFF Greenline Edge)
The offseason addition of RB Joe Mixon appears to have sparked a fire that the Texans offense desperately needed on the ground. In 2023, Houston ranked 28th in the league in EPA per rush, a rate that skyrocketed to a top-six mark after Week 1.
The former Bengals running back racked up 30 carries on his way to 159 yards and a score in Week 1. Over 100 yards of that came after contact, with the veteran averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Mixon played a key role in keeping the Texans’ offense on track, converting a first down or touchdown on 30% of his rushes.
Houston will want to emulate that performance again this week as they face a Bears defense that struggled to stop the run and secure tackles last week.
Chicago ranked below average in EPA allowed per rush last week but earned just a 47.4 team run-defense grade. The low grade was attributed mainly to missed tackles in the run game, with the team failing to secure six tackles against Tennessee.
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