PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.
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For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks by making their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice.
It has been a choppy start to the 2021 season for our analysts. Andrew Erickson has gone 3-5-2 on his picks, with one winning week and four losing weeks. Ben Brown has gone 4-5-1, with one winning week, one pushed week and three losing weeks.
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ANDREW ERICKSON
JOE BURROW OVER 264.5 PASSING YARDS
This one is easy money.
PFF’s fantasy projections have Burrow passing for a week-leading 320 yards. It's a forecast that is undoubtedly related to the Bengals’ change in offensive approach, as they opened the passing game up like never before in Week 5.
Cincinnati passed the ball just 46% of the time on early downs from Week 1 to Week 4, a rate that ranked 31st in the league. Against Green Bay in Week 5, the early-down pass-play rate skyrocketed to 63%, the ninth-highest of the week.
The Bengals passer should have no problem dicing up a Detroit Lions’ secondary that ranks 32nd in both explosive pass percentage allowed and yards allowed per pass attempt.
ANTONIO BROWN UNDER 61.5 RECEIVING YARDS & CHRIS GODWIN OVER 64.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Thursday Night Football parlay!
The Philadelphia Eagles‘ defensive scheme has done a good job of shutting down perimeter wide receivers this season, but it has been unable to slow down players aligned in the slot.
The Eagles have allowed just 45 targets and 30 receptions to go with 75 receiving yards per game to outside receivers, all top-three marks in the league. Meanwhile, Nick Sirianni's squad is PFF’s 32nd-graded defense on targets to the slot.
Chris Godwin is coming off a 10-target game and has lined up in the slot on 67% of his routes run this season — by far the most of any Bucs receiver. Conversely, Antonio Brown has operated from the slot on just 18% of his routes and owns a 13% target share over the last four weeks.
BEN BROWN
Damien Williams UNDER 56.5 RUSHING YARDS
Williams barely squeezed past his rushing yard total in a perfect game script environment last week. And this week's opening rushing yardage prop is six yards lower than last week’s closing number as a result of that close finish.
The problem for Williams in Week 6 is that Chicago could have a much different game script as 4.5-point home dogs to Green Bay.
The Bears’ backfield is also very much a timeshare after the injury to David Montgomery. Everyone expected Williams to be the featured back, but Khalil Herbert led Bears running backs in the percentage of snaps played and rushes attempted. Herbert ran a slightly lower percentage of routes and had a much worse receiving grade than Williams.
The only way Williams goes over this rushing yardage number is if he is involved toward the end of the game because of his pass-catching ability. He will see light boxes in this scenario, and the outcome of this bet will hinge on whether the Bears are content taking what the Packers defense gives them.
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Ja’Marr Chase OVER 68.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Chase has set the NFL ablaze through the first five weeks of his rookie season. He has exceeded this receiving yardage number in three of his five games as Joe Burrow’s go-to target, leading the Bengals’ wide receivers in snap percentage and percentage of routes run while generating the same number of targets as Tyler Boyd.
Tee Higgins’ return impacts Chase’s looks, but the Bengals are an offense that heavily concentrates its pass attempts to the top-three receiving options. Facing off against the worst coverage unit in the NFL, Chase could finish over this prop number on one deep reception. Chase’s 17.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT) on the season means that a lower target share due to game script is more than made up for with an easy matchup. Smash Chase’s over, as his historic rookie season is only getting started.
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