PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.
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For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks by making their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice.
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ANDREW ERICKSON
JOSH ALLEN OVER 255.5 PASSING YARDS
This passing yards prop is just simply too low for Josh Allen. The Buffalo Bills quarterback has gone over 300 in two of his last three games, and the Atlanta Falcons' recent “success” in pass defense is due to the lack of talent they have faced at the quarterback position. The likes of Tim Boyle, Jimmy Garoppolo and Cam Newton aren’t in the same stratosphere as Allen from a passing perspective, so, of course, none of them crested 250 passing yards against Atlanta.
They did, however, force the Falcons' defense to rank 31st in explosive pass rate and 25th in yards per pass attempt, showing their true colors as PFF’s 30th-ranked defense and 32nd-graded pass-rushing unit.
The Bills also throw at the highest rate when winning by seven or more points, so Allen will continue to sling the ball, even amid a blowout win for Buffalo.
I like parlaying Allen’s over prop with a correlated under prop on Cordarrelle Patterson’s 42.5 rushing yards, as the Falcons playing from behind means they aren’t going to be running the football.
MARVIN JONES JR. UNDER 45.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Jones has surpassed 45.5 receiving yards in three of his last nine games, and there’s a common theme when he has accomplished the feat: It’s been against weak secondaries like the New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans.
That couldn’t be farther from the case in Week 17 against the New England Patriots, who have allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards and fewest receptions per game to opposing receivers this season.
Jones is arguably not even the top wide receiver on his own team, as Laquon Treadwell leads the Jacksonville Jaguars in routes run and receiving yards (111) over the last two weeks. Jones will likely get the WR1 treatment from New England and draw coverage from JC Jackson, who has allowed the league’s second-lowest passer rating when targeted this season at 47.5.
BEN BROWN
DEVONTA SMITH OVER 42.5 RECEIVING YARDS
It’s rookie wide receiver breakout season in Week 17.
I am officially doubling down on the 2021 class and choosing two of the top selections to go over relatively modest receiving yardage numbers this weekend. Smith hasn’t yet had the breakout-type game as Ja'Marr Chase has, but it feels inevitable given his usage. Smith has been on the field for over 85% of offensive snaps the past two weeks, and he has run a route on 90% of dropbacks. He hasn’t seen a significant spike in target share but has consistently been over 15% since Week 6.
Washington has one of the worst coverage units in the NFL and couldn’t slow anyone down in their Sunday night matchup against Dallas. And while the Philadelphia Eagles offense isn’t quite at the same level as the Cowboys', they should still have modest success through the air. Given how low Smith’s receiving yardage prop is, modest success will have him easily eclipsing this number. After posting one of his best receiving game grades of the season, the time is now to double down on Smith, with the Eagles continuing to fight for their playoff lives.
JA’MARR CHASE OVER 64.5 RECEIVING YARDS
The rookie sensation has been a favorite of mine in the prop market this season. After a historic game for Joe Burrow, the Cincinnati Bengals now face their toughest test of the season. The mission in this home matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs is simple — win, and they are in the playoffs. Everyone is projecting a shootout to breakout in Cincinnati, and no one has more impact on that outcome than Ja’Marr Chase.
Over 50% of Chase’s targets have come at a depth of 10 or more yards downfield, and he has the fourth-most explosive plays among wide receivers this season. In a shootout environment for a player who only needs one target to explode, Chase to eclipse this relatively modest receiving yardage number on Sunday is one of the best props to take advantage of on PrizePicks.
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