PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.
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For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks by making their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice.
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ANDREW ERICKSON
JOSH JACOBS OVER 46.5 RUSHING YARDS
This line is just too low. The Las Vegas Raiders running back has 35 carries for 139 rushing yards over his last two games, setting the stage for him to fly over his 46.5-yard rushing prop. The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed at least 50 rushing yards to five different running backs since Week 7, so Jacobs has the matchup advantage against Kansas City's 29th-graded run defense, too.
Kenyan Drake, the Raiders' No. 2 running back, is also out, which should allow Jacobs to handle a larger workload. PFF’s fantasy projections have Jacobs handling 14.7 carries for 62 rushing yards, well above the 46.5-yard line.
DEREK CARR UNDER 265.5 PASSING YARDS
Naturally, you want to correlate your picks if you want to hit big on PrizePicks.com. So, I recommend adding the under on Derek Carr’s 265.5 passing-yardage prop — a mark he has hit once in the last four games.
The Raiders signal-caller failed to eclipse the yardage prop the last time he faced Kansas City, and the defense has erased opposing passers in recent weeks. The Chiefs defense has allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than 265 passing yards since Week 7, and they haven’t allowed a 300-yard passer since Week 5. After Josh Allen threw for 315 yards against them, The Chiefs have allowed just 228 passing yards per game.
PFF’s fantasy projections back taking the under on Carr, with his passing yards forecasted for 244 passing yards.
BEN BROWN
JAMES CONNER UNDER 63.5 RUSHING YARDS
Conner is all the rage in fantasy this season, but his outlook as a workhorse running back could soon diminish. Chase Edmonds appears set to return from his high-ankle sprain and could be the preferred back, given that he played a higher percentage of offensive snaps than Conner from Week 1 to Week 8. Yes, Conner still recorded the most rush attempts in this span, but his team rush-attempt share went from 40.6% to 61.7% with Edmonds on the sideline.
Even if Edmonds doesn’t return or is severely limited in Week 14, this rushing yardage number is concerning because of matchup considerations. Los Angeles boasts the best opponent-adjusted defensive ranking in the NFL and is third overall against the run. They have missed the second-fewest tackles among NFL defenses.
This 63.5-yard line is only three yards below his Week 13 line and provides the perfect spot to fade on Monday night, given all of the extenuating circumstances.
TERRY MCLAURIN OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS
It has been an inconsistent season for McLaurin, as the Washington offense distributes targets to several pass-catchers. Still, McLaurin is second among wide receivers in offensive snaps played and sixth in route rate.
McLaurin has a respectable team target share at almost 25%, but only 65% of his targets have been catchable because of the high average depth of target (aDOT) he continues to see. This is the nature of his boom-or-bust season and should once again be the expectation in his matchup against Dallas.
Thankfully, this matchup provides more opportunities for explosive plays, which McLaurin has racked up at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL this season. With McLaurin sitting at his lowest receiving yardage prop of the season, now is the time to buy into his breakout game.
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