- Zach Wilson TD (.5) & INT (1.5) props: Take the unders — he has gone touchdown-less in three of his five starts and had over 1.5 picks in two of those.
- Aaron Jones receiving yards (25.5): Take the under — The Packers should have everything they want throwing downfield on Sunday.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 mins
The prop plays went three out of five once again the last time we saw action. On 36 bets touted this season, the prop plays are up 6.3 units. Here’s who the data and mismatches are highlighting this week.
Zach Wilson Under .5 TD +186 & O 1.5 INT (+177)
The Buffalo Bills defense is no joke. They not only overpower opposing offensive lines with the second-highest-graded pass-rushing unit, but their back end can hold its own with the seventh-highest graded coverage unit in the NFL.
That being said, this comes down to Zach Wilson. He is dead last in the NFL in turnover-worthy play rate at 6.0% (among quarterbacks with 100 dropbacks). He has gone touchdown-less in three of his five starts and had over 1.5 picks in two of those. Against that talented a defense, I don’t see things turning around.
P.J. Walker Under .5 Touchdowns vs. Bengals (+172)
The Panthers offense is far from a world beater. Walker is facing a Bengals defense that has been far more consistent than their offense this season. Walker has hit over this prop in two of his three starts, but it took a hail mary last week against the Falcons to go over.
The Panthers are still dead last in the NFL in terms of EPA/dropback as well as passing success rate. It’s a toss up whether they’ll punch one in through the air vs. the 12th-ranked coverage unit in the league.
Aaron Jones Under 25.5 Receiving Yards vs. Lions (-112)
Like every other offense that has faced the Lions defense this season, the Packers should have everything they want throwing downfield on Sunday. The Lions have only given up 149 receiving yards to running backs this season (21.3 yards per game) while allowing 1,355 yards to wide receivers (193.6 yards per game).
With the Packers in desperate need of some confidence for their wide receivers, they’ll likely do everything they can to force feed them agains the Lions.
Justin Fields Under 8.5 Carries vs. Dolphins (-116)
The Bears have been able to run Fields at will in recent weeks because they’ve been in tight games. His 12 carries against the Commanders and 14 carries against the Patriots came in games that went down to the wire or the Bears ran away with.
That doesn’t figure to be the case against the Dolphins, where they are 4 point dogs at home. If they have to play catch up against a team that is undefeated with Tua Tagovailoa playing a full game, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to utilize him in the quarterback run game.
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