NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting: Midweek market update

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article. Lookahead lines were not available ahead of this week.

Click here to jump to a game:

LAC@HOU | PIT@BAL | DEN@BUF | GB@PHI | WAS@TB | MIN@LAR

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

Spread: This matchup opened at 3 and saw some early movement between 2.5 and 3 on Monday. Since then, it has settled at 3, though a few books are still holding at 2.5.

Total: Heavy action on the under has driven the total down from its opening line of 44 to 42.5. At this point, 42.5 is the consensus across the board.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Spread: For the third time this season, the Steelers and Ravens will clash. Pittsburgh opened as 3.5-point underdogs in Week 11, 7-point underdogs in Week 16 and now find themselves as nearly 10-point underdogs. The line has fluctuated between 9.5 and 10 throughout the week, with the market remaining split between those two numbers.

Total: A pick release on the under at 45.5 initially drove the total down as low as 43. However, resistance at that point has caused a rebound, with most books now sitting at 44. Some 43.5s are still available.

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: Buffalo has shifted to a 9-point favorite after opening at 8. The line briefly touched 9.5 before settling back down to 9. A 10-point spread has yet to surface, though some 8.5s are still available.

Total: The total held firm at 47 earlier in the week, but we’ve recently seen some movement downward to 46.5 at select books. A mix of 47s and a few 47.5s are still available.

Buy/Sell: I’ll take the under at 47 (-109) available at Kambi sportsbooks (Rivers, Sugarhouse, Parx) over laying -120 for 47.5 at FanDuel.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Philadelphia opened as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday but has seen some fluctuation between 4 and 5 points amid news that Jalen Hurts remains in concussion protocol. The line doesn’t appear to reflect significant concern over his availability for the game.

Total: The total has started to trend downward, with some market leaders now at 45. It seems unlikely to drop much further from this point.

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: The spread has held steady, with Tampa remaining a 3-point favorite since the market opened. However, the vig suggests growing support for Washington as a 3-point underdog.

Total: After peaking at 51, the total has dipped below its opening number of 50.5, with some books now listing it under 50. For those seeking the higher number, 50.5 is still available at several widely accessible sportsbooks.

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Following a lackluster showing in a must-win game, the Vikings now face a true toss-up against a Rams team that rested its starters last week. The line has shifted in favor of the Rams, with some books even listing them as slight favorites before Minnesota support brought it back to a pick’em.

Total: The total has seen a modest increase, with the market currently split between 47.5 and 48.

Buy/Sell: I’ll back the Rams’ movement and lock in their moneyline at +100 on FanDuel. If you can access sweepstakes books, you might find an even better price. Despite Minnesota’s 14-win season, my evaluation gives the edge to Los Angeles in this matchup.