• Bet on Matthew Stafford and the Rams (+3.5) to get the best of the Lions: While Stafford and Jared Goff have similar passing grades, the Rams' signal-caller ranks fourth in big-time throw rate and Goff places 32nd.
• Bet on the Bills (-9.5) to blow out the Steelers at home: The Bills will be able to get pressure on Mason Rudolph and move him off his spot, which will create major problems for Pittsburgh's passing attack.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
If you are betting on NFL spreads, it's best to do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, here are our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move ahead of the NFL playoffs' wild-card round.
We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 25-24 (-0.3 units) this season.
Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord. And if you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.
Buffalo Bills (-9.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
• The Pittsburgh Steelers became the fifth team in NFL history to win 10-plus games and have a point differential of -20 or worse. They rank 24th in expected points added per play and success rate on offense, and their 29.9% scoring drive rate is 27th.
• T.J. Watt is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate after another 19-sack season, but he is almost certainly not going to play in this game while nursing an MCL sprain. Injuries have decimated the Steelers' back seven, and without a lot of quick pressure generated from four rushers, they will have no choice but to blitz at times. Pittsburgh has the fifth-highest blitz rate in the NFL on the year, but Josh Allen owns the third-best passing grade against the blitz and ranked sixth last year.
• Buffalo’s patchwork defense has rebounded from an ugly midseason stretch, with trade deadline acquisition Rasul Douglas a massive addition at cornerback. The Bills will be able to get pressure on Mason Rudolph and move him off his spot, which will create major problems for this Steelers passing attack. This has the makings of a blowout.
Teaser: Houston Texans (+8.5) vs. Cleveland Browns & Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
• This is a Wong Teaser, which happens when each side you tease crosses both the numbers three and seven, as is the case here with the Texans moving from +2.5 to +8.5 and the Cowboys moving from -7.5 to -1.5. Because three and seven are the most common end-of-game point differentials, crossing those numbers gives the bettor more outcomes for which each side wins.
• The Texans have the better quarterback and are getting points at home here, making them an enticing option to tease. The one minor issue is that it’s Stroud’s first playoff start, which hasn’t boded well in the past, but he has shown at times throughout the season that he can play in prime time and not be fazed. While the Browns' offense with Joe Flacco has put up points in bunches recently, a large part of that is due to explosive plays — which can be tough to replicate week over week.
• The best offense playing on wild-card weekend is arguably that of the Cowboys, and they go up against a Packers defense that ranks 23rd in EPA per play allowed and 26th in success rate allowed. Just three weeks ago, Green Bay allowed Bryce Young to score 30 points. Dallas should easily be able to move the ball and put up points. While Jordan Love has played exceptionally well to get the Packers to this spot, it’s also his first playoff start — and on the road in one of the NFL's most hostile environments. The Cowboys' home-field advantage is also not to be messed with, as they are 8-0 overall and 6-2 against the spread at home this year.
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) @ Detroit Lions
• A tale as old as time: The better quarterback is getting points. Matthew Stafford returns home to Detroit to face Jared Goff. While they have similar passing grades, the difference lies in their ability to make big-time throws. Stafford ranks fourth in big-time throw rate, and Goff ranks 32nd.
• The Lions will likely be without rookie tight end Sam LaPorta and wide receiver Kalif Raymond in the game. Raymond grades out as a top-five receiver in PFF separation grading, and LaPorta ranks fifth in PFF grade among tight ends.
• The Rams rested their key players in Week 18 and will face a Lions pass defense that ranked 29th in expected points per pass play allowed. Bet on Stafford to win a home playoff game in Detroit.
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