Why the Las Vegas Raiders will go under 7.5 wins (-110)

Like many a degenerate gambler who came before them, the Oakland/Los Angeles/Oakland Raiders took the plunge this offseason and moved their team to Las Vegas. Despite not taking a quarterback with one of their three first-round picks in 2019 (and largely over-drafting each player they did take), the Raiders were in the playoff hunt all the way up until Week 17, when they lost to the Denver Broncos on the road to fall to 7-9 (but over their Vegas win total). 

This brings us, again, to 2020 win totals. Earlier this offseason, we talked about the Vikings under 9 wins, and this article will have a similar tone. The Raiders’ win total is currently set at 7.5 wins (priced to the -110 over and the under, and up from the last time we wrote about them). Raiders fans — and it appears some oddsmakers — are understandably bullish on Jon Gruden’s club improving by at least one game from 2019 to 2020. Here, we discuss why this is a trap. 

[Editor’s note: Check out PFF’s 2020 Mock Draft Hub, NFL Draft Big Board and NFL Mock Draft Simulator. PFF Elite subscribers can also download the 1,100-page 2020 NFL Draft Guide.]

The Raiders Weren’t Really a Seven-Win Team a Season Ago

While the final standings did show seven wins for the Silver and Black, all seven victories came by a score or less (they played 10 such games). Giving them a 50/50 win percentage on such games would make them a 5-11 team, from which 7.5 wins represents a pretty big jump.