• Bet Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs: He is on an incredible 11-3 run going over his prop number since Week 15 last year.
• The narrative shifted too far in one direction for this matchup, creating an opportunity to buy low on the best quarterback on the planet.
• Bet Mecole Hardman u1.5 receptions: The addition of Kadarius Toney could directly impact his usage, but Hardman also has a lower receiving grade than rookie Skyy Moore, whose role could increase coming out of the bye.
Last updated: Nov. 6, 3:30 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 5 mins
• Our prime-time previews pull all the key modeling numbers and simulated outcomes from PFF’s betting tools, including PFF NFL Greenline and the Player Props tool, which use top-down machine learning models backed by PFF’s exclusive data to derive value when compared to the betting market.
• Let’s dive into the Sunday Night football matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs.
GAME LINES
• No team has punched up quite like the Tennessee Titans since Mike Vrabel took over as head coach: A big coinciding reason is Derrick Henry, who sits second in yards after contact per attempt dating back to when he first entered the league in 2016. Getting King Henry going looks like the only possible path to the Titans staying in this matchup, with no Ryan Tannehill and no true legitimate threat at the WR position.
• Malik Willis’ dynamic rushing ability could actually open up opportunities: As we see this play out in metrics based on bite-rate at the linebacker position, and linebacker play differences whether the quarterback is a running threat. Henry’s highest-graded rushing game and second-highest yards before contact per attempt this season came last week with Willis at quarterback.
It’s safe to assume one of these two players will have some success on the ground; the question then becomes whether the Titans' defense can slow Kansas City’s passing game.
• The run game matchup looks one-sided, with the Titans putting up the third-best run defense ranking this season: Jeffery Simmons, one of the best front-four players in the NFL (No. 4 overall in pass-rush grade), has to generate pressure quickly.
• Tennessee's coverage units ranks ninth-best this season, but that's mostly the product of strong S and LB play: Former first-round CB Caleb Farley effectively was benched for journeyman Terrance Mitchell, who’s coming off his lowest-graded coverage game this season and will be Kansas City's likely target opposite Kristian Fulton, the best coverage player on the Titans' roster. Rookie Roger McCreary holding up in slot coverage could very easily be the key to the Titans keeping this one close. If he falters and Andy Reid’s playcalling starts to put him in difficult situations, the Chiefs could run away with this game.
PFF Greenline doesn’t offer any value on the game spread or total, but if we push further toward the Chiefs and +13 or higher, the model will most likely lean in the TItans' direction.
No bet
PLAYER PROPS
Bet Patrick Mahomes — Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+150)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +130
• The SNF handicap seems relatively straightforward: Either the Titans control possession, the clock and churn through the game with Patrick Mahomes on the sideline, or the Chiefs win by multiple scores. One easily leads to Mahomes going over this prop number, but even not in the best game for Mahomes can he still clear this prop number.
• Against a stout run defense, Kansas City's best path to success is exploiting Tennessee secondary: This points toward a more explosive-play-dependent offense, one that could see the Chiefs put up multiple quick scores. If that happens early, Mahomes will easily throw for three-plus in a showcase game on Sunday night.
• Mahomes is on an incredible 11-3 run going over his prop number since Week 15 last year: Yet he hasn't seen this high of a plus-price offering on o2.5 pass TDs since the playoffs last year. The narrative shifted too far in one direction for this matchup, creating an opportunity to buy low on the best quarterback on the planet.
Bet Mecole Hardman — Under 2.5 Receptions (+115)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +100
• Hardman hit his second-highest offensive snap percentage in Week 7 before the bye: But he absolutely could find himself as the odd man out after the open date. The addition of Kadarius Toney could directly impact his usage, but he also has a lower receiving grade than rookie Skyy Moore this year. Coming out of a bye, not only will the Chiefs want to get Toney involved, they could give an uptick in opportunities to Moore.
• With defined roles on offense, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are unlikely to be used less: This also looks like a spot where bookmakers may have adjusted too much to their Week 7 usage drop-off in a blowout spot, and not fully vetted how the new addition and post-bye usage impacts Hardman the most. There’s a chance the Titans offense slows down the Chiefs, but even if that doesn’t happen, it’s hard to find too many scenarios where Hardman goes over this prop number.
DERIVATIVE BETS & SAME-GAME PARLAY
• We’ve already established a pretty good base same-game parlay with our two player props from above: The Hardman reception prop is also negatively correlated to Mahomes over 2.5 passing touchdowns, and with both a plus price, make for a great starting point.
• Tennessee has as a top-ten coverage unit but drops to a league-average grade when focused on TE targets: Facing off against the best version the NFL has to offer could be a source of trouble for the Titans secondary. If Mahomes gets three plus TDs, its hard not to see at least one of them going to his favorite target in Travis Kelce. JuJu Smith-Schuster could also be a play and offers a much better payout, but passing up on Travis Kelce feels like a miss given the expected game script in this matchup.
Caesars SGP build (+590)
Patrick Mahomes 3+ Passing TD’s
Mecole Hardman U2.5 Receptions
Travis Kelce Anytime TD
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