• Bet Zach Wilson u207.5 pass yards vs Bills: When pressured this season, Wilson has a league-low 22.0 PFF Grade, completing 18% of his passes with a 2.9 yards per attempt and the second-lowest EPA/dropback.
• Buffalo has a 35.2% pressure rate (7th) while blitzing on a league-low 13.4 percent of defensive snaps.
• Bet Falcons QB Marcus Mariota u15.5 completions vs Chargers: When accounting for down, distance, yard line, time remaining, score differential and win probability, Atlanta has 2nd-lowest pass rate over expected in the NFL; Bolts 27th in rush EPA allowed, 31st in ypc.
Last updated: Nov. 4, 5:00 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
In Week 8, we went 2-1 using various data points to bet QB props. Tua Tagovailoa went well over his 1.5 passing TD prop, and Matthew Stafford couldn't overcome another bad offensive line performance, only throwing for 187 yards — well under his 261.5 prop. Our longshot, Kenny Pickett over 1.5 interceptions at +190, didn’t hit as he finished with one interception. Let's look to improve in that department in Week 9.
Bet: New York Jets QB Zach Wilson — Under 207.5 Passing Yards (-115) vs Buffalo Bills
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 204.5
• Zach Wilson Has Struggled When Under Pressure: When pressured this season, Wilson has a league-low 22.0 PFF Grade, completing 18% of his passes with a 2.9 yards per attempt and the second-lowest EPA/dropback.
• The Bills Get a Lot of Pressure: Despite blitzing at a league-low rate of 13.4%, Buffalo's defense has generated the 7th-highest pressure rate in the league (35.2%). While Wilson will be under pressure pretty often in this game, he will be throwing against a back-seven the majority of the time making it even tougher to succeed.
Bet: Bills QB Josh Allen — Over 2.5 Pass Touchdowns (+155) at Jets
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +145
• Bills Have Passing Game Advantage: The Bills come into this matchup 2nd in Expected Points Added (EPA) per pass, barely behind the Kansas City Chiefs. Although the Jets pass defense ranks 9th in the NFL, it’ll still be a very tough task defending Allen throwing to PFF’s 2nd-highest-graded receiver, Stefon Diggs.
• Josh Allen Goes Over Frequently: In four of his seven games this season, Allen has thrown for over 2.5 passing touchdowns. Dating back to last season, he has gone over 2.5 passing touchdowns in 42% of his games, yet the +155 odds imply a 39% probability, showing there’s value.
• PFF’s Player Props Tool sees this bet as a +19.6% edge, the highest edge currently listed on the tool.
Bet: Atlanta Falcons QB Marcus Mariota — Under 15.5 Completions (-125) vs Los Angeles Chargers
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -130
• The Falcons Rarely Pass: When accounting for down, distance, yard line, time remaining, score differential and win probability, Atlanta has the 2nd-lowest pass rate over expected in the NFL — 12% less than a neutral team would in their situations.
• Arthur Smith Will Want to Run Against the Chargers: The Chargers rank 27th in EPA per rush allowed and 31st in yards per carry allowed. The Falcons have shown they like to run the ball even more than usual against teams with bad defenses, with Mariota having only 8 completions against the D.J. Reader-less Cincinnati Bengals and 7 completions against the Cleveland Browns, the 2nd-worst rush defense in the NFL.
Tej's QB player props went 2-1 in Week 8, bringing his season record to 12-10 (3.5 units).
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