• Bet Steelers -2.5 on TNF: The Steelers have generally been excellent against rookie quarterbacks, especially at home. And with Will Levis making just his second career start on a short week, this is where Tomlin’s teams have thrived. Look for Pittsburgh to create multiple turnovers and win on Thursday.
• Big game coming for George Pickens: Pickens was held to just one catch in Week 8, but Mike Tomlin said in the post-game press conference that the Steelers need to do a better job of getting him involved early in games. Look for Pickens to see upward of 10 targets in Week 9, especially against a pretty soft secondary.
• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Matchup to watch: Steelers C Mason Cole vs. Titans DI Jeffery Simmons
Pittsburgh has had many problems on the offensive line this season, but their biggest issue is at center. Cole has earned a sub-50.0 PFF grade through eight weeks and will have a rough matchup in Week 9 with Simmons coming to town. Simmons can take over the game himself and will need to if the Titans want to pull off the upset on Thursday Night Football.
Fantasy breakout: Steelers WR George Pickens
Pickens was held to just one catch in Week 8, but Mike Tomlin said in the post-game press conference that the Steelers need to do a better job of getting him involved early in games. Look for Pickens to see upward of 10 targets in Week 9, especially against a pretty soft secondary.
Favorite bet: Steelers -2.5
The Steelers have generally been excellent against rookie quarterbacks, especially at home. And with Will Levis making just his second career start on a short week, this is where Tomlin’s teams have thrived. Look for Pittsburgh to create multiple turnovers and win on Thursday.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Matchup to watch: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill vs. Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie
In his first game against his former team, you can expect Tyreek Hill to see a ton of targets. The Dolphins do an excellent job of moving Hill around the formation, but keep an eye on him when he faces slot cornerback Trent McDuffie. He’s one of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL, but this will be a huge test for the second-year cornerback from Washington.
Fantasy breakout: Chiefs WR Rashee Rice
For the first time all season, Rice led the Chiefs wide receivers in routes run in Week 8. He has caught 77% of his targets this season, and his role in the offense is growing. With Jalen Ramsey back, look for Patrick Mahomes to avoid throwing on the outside and target Rice more in the slot. Don’t be surprised if this is his first game with 75-plus receiving yards.
Favorite bet: Chiefs -2.5
The last time the Chiefs lost back-to-back games was in 2019 — and they went on to win the Super Bowl that year. It doesn't happen very often in the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes era. While they are struggling on offense, look for them to bounce back in a big way in Week 9 in Germany.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Matchup to watch: Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon
Two of the best rookies in the NFL will face off against one another, and it should be quite the battle. Witherspoon is the third-highest-graded cornerback in the NFL this season (84.4), and his presence has completely changed the defense for the Seahawks. But Flowers has done the same for the Ravens, giving them an explosive weapon to pair with QB Lamar Jackson. This should be a fantastic matchup on Sunday.
Fantasy breakout: Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett
Lockett had a big performance against the Browns, catching eight passes for 81 yards and a score. This should be another good matchup for him on Sunday, with Marlon Humphrey likely following D.K. Metcalf. Look for Lockett to be the most targeted receiver in this matchup.
Favorite bet: Seahawks +5.5
The Seahawks are a different team on the road, but there is no reason they should be getting this many points. Their offense is starting to come together, and their defense should be able to contain Jackson. Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks pull off the upset in Baltimore, but certainly take them to cover the 5.5-point spread on Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: Packers WR Christian Watson vs. Rams CB Ahkello Witherspoon
After being released by the Steelers this offseason, Witherspoon has had an excellent bounce-back season for the Rams. He’ll have a tough assignment in Week 9, taking on the uber-athletic Watson. It’s been a struggle for Watson this season, who has just 11 receptions for 176 yards and a score. Is this the game he gets back on track? We shall see, but this is a good matchup for Witherspoon, who has fantastic size and length.
Fantasy breakout: Breakout RB Aaron Jones
Jones has not seen a ton of work this season, totaling just 29 carries through the first eight weeks of the season. But it’s time for Matt LaFleur to unleash him. He’s the best player on their offense, and the Packers should be able to open some holes in the run game. Look for Jones to get 14-plus touches this week and return to being a solid RB2.
Favorite bet: Under 40.5 (-110)
Taking the under on a point total this low is usually pretty difficult to do, but not in this game. Matthew Stafford‘s status is up in the air due to his thumb, and the cold weather might keep him out of this game. But on the flip side, the Packers can't score, and the Rams have been average on defense this season. Take the under and expect a 19-16 type of game in Green Bay.
Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Matchup to watch: Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson
Surprisingly, the Bears decided to keep disgruntled cornerback Jaylon Johnson through the trade deadline. Now, he is scheduled to become a free agent at the end of the 2023 season. Before he gets a big payday, he’ll have to cover a bunch of top-end receivers to finish the year. That starts in Week 9 with his matchup against Chris Olave.
Fantasy breakout: Saints WR Michael Thomas
With Johnson likely shadowing Olave, that leaves Michael Thomas against Tyrique Stevenson, the No. 98th-graded cornerback in the NFL this season. Thomas has had a nice season after missing the better half of the last three years. And this is a matchup that he should dominate. Look for Thomas to be a strong flex play in Week 9 against the Bears.
Favorite bet: Under 41 points
With Justin Fields (thumb) out again this week, the Bears will struggle to generate offense against the Saints. They can't get enough from their passing attack with Tyson Bagent under center, and that should allow the under to hit in New Orleans on Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans (-3)
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers RT Luke Goedeke vs. Texans EDGE Will Anderson Jr.
One of the biggest surprises of the season has been the play of Luke Goedeke. After grading out as one of the NFL’s worst guards, he’s been a revelation at right tackle for the Buccaneers. He’ll be tested in a big way in Week 9, facing off against Will Anderson Jr., the No. 3 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Anderson doesn’t have gaudy sack totals this season, but he’s been a fantastic player for the Texans.
Fantasy breakout: Texans TE Dalton Schultz
Schultz has always been a matchup problem for the Buccaneers, as he notably caught seven passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns in the playoff game last year. He wasn’t used much against the Panthers, but expect that to change in Week 9. Schultz has a big size advantage over the Bucs' safeties and should see multiple red-zone targets.
Favorite bet: Buccaneers +3
These two teams have been eerily similar this season, but the Buccaneers are getting points, and they might have more talent. With a veteran roster, expect them to keep this game close and likely win it outright on the road.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons (-5)
Matchup to watch: Vikings WR Jordan Addison vs. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell
Addison has been one of the best rookie receivers in the league this season, but it might be more difficult for him to produce without his starting quarterback. It also doesn’t help that he’ll face one of the top outside cornerbacks in the NFL in A.J. Terrell. If Addison can find a way to produce in this matchup with a new quarterback, it’s time to start having some serious conversations about Addison and his upside in the NFL.
Fantasy breakout: Falcons TE Kyle Pitts
With Drake London questionable to play and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, is this finally the week Kyle Pitts explodes onto the season for the Falcons? Look for the Falcons to make him a focal point of the offense and give him plenty of targets against this blitz-happy defense.
Favorite bet: Falcons – 5
Maybe the Vikings can rebound and find their footing without Kirk Cousins. Just don’t expect that to happen this week, especially with Jaren Hall making the first start of his career. The Falcons giving five points at home seems like a lot, but the Vikings will struggle to score more than 17 in Week 9.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns (-8)
Matchup to watch: Browns RT Dawand Jones vs. Cardinals EDGE Zaven Collins
Jones is coming off arguably the worst game of his young career, allowing a sack and a QB hit. He is still having a really nice season but will have a tough matchup against Collins in Week 9. Collins has made the transition from off-the-ball linebacker to edge defender, and he's off to the best start of his career. However, his pass-rush win rate is just 5.8%, and he could struggle to create much pressure against Jones on Sunday.
Fantasy breakout: Cardinals TE Trey McBride
With Zach Ertz on the injured reserve list, that has allowed McBride to have a bigger role in the offense. McBride played 82% of the offensive snaps in Week 8 and racked up a career-high 95 yards and a score. Expect him to be a featured weapon in Week 9, regardless of who is at quarterback for Arizona,
Favorite bet: Cardinals +8
There is still some uncertainty about who will start at quarterback for the Cardinals, but the Browns don't exactly have a high-end starter at that position, either. With both teams struggling to throw the ball, there is no reason why the Browns should be giving that many points. Take the Cardinals and the points on Sunday, regardless of who is at quarterback for Arizona.
Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots (-3)
Matchup to watch: Patriots LT Trent Brown vs. Commanders EDGE Casey Toohill
The Commanders traded away both starting edge rushers on Tuesday, which now forces Toohill into a bigger role. In his first start of the season, he'll be matched up against Trent Brown, who has been the best offensive lineman for the Patriots. If Toohill can create any pressure at all, that would be a major win for the Commanders.
Fantasy breakout: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin
With all of the injuries in the secondary for the Patriots, this is a game where Terry McLaurin should feast. He's likely to see a ton of J.C. Jackson, the No. 113 graded cornerback on the year. McLaurin has averaged nearly 74 yards per game since Oct. 1, and that should continue this week.
Favorite bet: Commanders +3
The Commanders are a much better team than their record indicates. Two losses have come against the Eagles, but the Commanders were highly competitive in both games. While they will be without Montez Sweat and Chase Young, they should still be able to win this game with their offense. Take the Commanders and the points on the road in Week 9.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Matchup to watch: Colts RT Blake Freeland vs. Panthers EDGE Brian Burns
There is a chance that Braden Smith returns for Week 9, but we are proceeding with the belief that it’ll be Freeland. A rookie out of BYU, Freeland has struggled mightily as a pass protector this season. It won’t get easier for him on Sunday, with Burns almost exclusively lining up on that side. Look for the Colts to give Freeland plenty of help on Sunday.
Fantasy breakout: Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr.
This is a dream matchup for Pittman, with both starting outside cornerbacks struggling in Carolina this season. C.J. Henderson (45.3) and Donte Jackson (57.3) have arguably been the worst outside cornerback duo in the league. Pittman should have a big performance in Week 9, especially if Gardner Minshew gets good protection up front.
Favorite bet: Panthers +2.5
The Panthers got their first win of the season in Week 8, upsetting the Texans at home. Can they string together another win against a similar team on Sunday? Given that this game is in Carolina, the Panthers are the smart play here as home dogs.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Matchup to watch: Eagles WR A.J. Brown vs. Cowboys CB Stephon Gilmore
With Trevon Diggs out for the year (ACL), expect veteran Stephon Gilmore to be the one matched up against A.J. Brown. If the Cowboys want to have any chance of winning this game, they'll need Gilmore to keep Brown in check. That is easier said than done, with Brown averaging a career-high 117.4 receiving yards per game. This is best-on-best in Week 9 and should be fantastic to watch.
Fantasy breakout: Dallas Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson
CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks will undoubtedly get a ton of attention from the Eagles on Sunday, and that should open up more opportunities for Ferguson. The second-year tight end from Wisconsin has yet to exceed 50 yards in a game this season, but look for the Cowboys to target him early and often on Sunday. He has a strong matchup against the linebackers and safeties of the Eagles and has quickly turned into Dak Prescott‘s red-zone favorite.
Favorite bet: Eagles -3
The Eagles are the more talented team, and they are healthier. The Cowboys aren’t quite the same when they are away from home, and this is a game that could get away from them. Take the Eagles to win and cover in this huge NFC East matchup.
New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
Matchup to watch: Raiders WR Davante Adams vs. Giants CB Adoree Jackson
Adams is in the middle of the worst stretch of his NFL career, but you can bet that things will change on Sunday. With the Raiders moving on from Josh McDaniels, Mick Lombardi, and Jimmy Garoppolo (backup QB), look for Adams to be more involved in the offense than ever. Adoree' Jackson will have his work cut out on Sunday, with Adams likely seeing double-digit targets.
Fantasy breakout: Raiders WR Davante Adams
Even during this rough stretch, you likely weren’t benching Adams because of his ceiling. And with Aidan O'Connell at quarterback, it brings even more uncertainty to his fantasy value. But don’t panic. Adams is still one of the best receivers in the league, and you can bet that the new coaching staff of Las Vegas will pepper him with targets.
Favorite bet: Under 37
The Raiders fired their general manager, head coach and offensive coordinator, and they benched their starting QB on a short week. There is no chance they will have an offensive explosion in Week 9, especially against a defense that has played well in the last few weeks. Take the under here, as both offenses will struggle to score multiple touchdowns on Sunday.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Matchup to watch: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase vs. Bills CB Rasul Douglas
The Bills traded for Rasul Douglas (Packers) before the trade deadline, and it remains to be seen what his role will be in Week 9. But you can bet they'll want him on the field for this matchup, especially against Chase. Over the last five games, Chase has averaged 117.2 yards per game. Look for the Bengals to target him early and often against this secondary that could usher in a new starter.
Fantasy breakout: Bills TE Dalton Kincaid
The Bills have found something in Dalton Kincaid. That shouldn’t be surprising, considering they traded up for him in Round 1, but he is the missing piece of the offense. Kincaid is coming off the best game of his career, and the Bills continue to feature him in the offense. He is a must-start moving forward.
Favorite bet: Bills +2.5
The Bengals are coming off a hard-fought road win against the 49ers, while the Bills have had 10 days to prepare for this game. While the Bengals are certainly playing better now, expect Buffalo to find a way to steal this game on the road in Week 9.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. New York Jets
Matchup to watch: Chargers LT Rashawn Slater vs. Jets EDGE Jermaine Johnson II
Johnson has really heated up over the last three games, recording three sacks and 15 pressures. He’ll have quite a challenge in Week 9, facing one of the top young left tackles in the league. But if the Jets are going to slow down Justin Herbert, they’ll need Johnson and the rest of their EDGE rushers to have a big day.
Fantasy breakout: Jets RB Breece Hall
Hall is coming off arguably the worst game of his career, rushing for just 17 yards on 12 carries. The weather played a big factor, but Hall has been highly efficient this season. In this game, look for the Jets to lean on their star running back and give him upwards of 20 touches. This is a must-win game for the Jets, so Hall should see plenty of work on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Jets +3
The Jets have had incredible success against top-end quarterbacks this season and will face another one on Monday night. With this game being in New York at prime time, expect Robert Saleh's defense to show out in a big way. Even if they don't win outright, expect them to keep the game within a field goal.
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