NFL Week 9 Leveraging Tails: Bet on Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks against the Baltimore Ravens

• Seahawks' passing offense can cause problems: The Seahawks have fielded the better offense, and the Ravens have a terrific defense. But in the modern NFL, defense is often driven by the opponents faced and is largely unstable.

• The volume will be there: The Seahawks are — for the second season in a row — top-eight in pass rate above expected, meaning that we should expect plenty of passing from the Seahawks.

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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes

Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”

However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.

Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.

Best Bets

• QB Geno Smith 250+ passing yards & Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (+900)

• QB Geno Smith 300+ Passing & Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (+4500)

• If you take a statistical view of how well the Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks have moved the ball, there isn’t a huge gap between them.

• The Seahawks have fielded the better offense, and the Ravens have a terrific defense. But in the modern NFL, defense is often driven by the opponents faced and is largely unstable.

• Upon closer analysis, we see that the Ravens have played quite an easy schedule of opponents. With the exception of the Detroit Lions, none of their opponents have moved the ball above the 40th-percentile mark.

• Simply put, the opposing offenses they’ve faced have been remarkably bad, propping up their defensive numbers.

• This isn’t to say the Ravens' defense is not as good as it appears, but instead that there is some uncertainty with regard to how the market is pricing them.

• Geno Smith’s prop sits at a paltry 219 yards. This market uncertainty is especially relevant, considering how consistent the Seahawks' offense has been. They’ve played well above average on offense in five of their seven games and put on some solid performances against some tough defenses.

• Smith and this offense should be able to move the ball and mitigate the defensive advantage the market is currently pricing. The Ravens' and Seahawks' defensive tendencies in terms of man and zone coverage, blitzing, etc., all rank toward the middle of the pack, suggesting there is no real matchup angle that should tilt us in either direction.

Bottom line

The Ravens rank top-10 in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and therefore force teams to pass above expected against them.

The Seahawks are — for the second season in a row — top-eight in pass rate above expected, meaning that we should expect plenty of passing from the Seahawks.

If the Seahawks are going to win, it is going to come through the air, where their prices are pushed down by virtue of a matchup that contains more uncertainty than the market assumes — a perfect spot to play the alts and leverage the tails scenarios.