NFL Week 9 Betting: Three player prop bets to consider

• Bet CeeDee Lamb OVER 6.5 receptions: Dallas will need to score points in this game, and Philadelphia’s 74.5 run-defense grade ranks fourth and their 37.5% success rate allowed on the season ranks 13th.

• Bet Montez Sweat UNDER 0.75 sacks: Now in Chicago, Sweat joins a unit that ranks dead last in pass-rush win rate (29.1%), and he will have all of the attention of opposing offenses.

• Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day. Join FanDuel today!

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The story for Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season is how many backup quarterbacks are starting across the league, with eight expected to start and a few other situations where the No. 2 quarterback should keep their helmet close by due to injury questions. 

Amid a messy week of action at the most important position in all of sports, we’ve identified our favorite plays of the week. 

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb OVER 6.5 receptions (+105, FanDuel)

The Philadelphia Eagles‘ defense has allowed the second-most receptions in the NFL to opposing wide receivers lined up in the slot (73), where Lamb plays 64% of his snaps. 

Dallas will need to score points in this game, and Philadelphia’s 74.5 run-defense grade ranks fourth and their 37.5% success rate allowed on the season ranks 13th. Mike McCarthy has leaned heavily into a very inefficient run game this season, but the Cowboys have also played with a comfortable lead for large stretches of the majority of their games in 2023. 

That will not be the case here against an Eagles offense that should be able to score against Dallas. Their offensive line should neutralize the Cowboys’ pass rush, allowing Jalen Hurts to attack the secondary and especially the middle of the field where Dallas has dealt with a bevy of injuries to linebackers and underperformance from their top safety trio. That means Dallas will look to pass to keep up, and CeeDee Lamb is the top target.

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara OVER 4.5 receptions (-101, Caesars)

The Bears rank dead last in expected points allowed per reception to opposing running backs and dead last in success rate allowed on targets to opposing running backs, surrendering the third-most receptions overall to the position through Week 8. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and safety Jaquan Brisker, two defenders who come down into the box and can carry opposing running backs on routes out of the backfield, are out for this game. 

The primary concerns here are a game script that has New Orleans up big early and a weak pass rush that doesn’t force quarterback Derek Carr to get the ball out of his hands quickly. However, Carr checks the ball down as fast as any quarterback in the NFL. With there being no real pressure to take downfield shots since 20 points might win this game comfortably, he could also be willing to play things safe in the first half and matriculate the ball down the field against a soft zone defense that attempts to limit explosive gains while giving up targets underneath. 

Chicago Bears EDGE Montez Sweat UNDER 0.75 sacks (-105, DraftKings)

Saints quarterback Derek Carr’s 18.3% pressure-to-sack rate is the 17th-highest mark in the NFL and one percentage point away from being outside of the top 20.

Sweat lines up almost exclusively on the left side of the defensive line, meaning he’ll predominantly matchup opposite New Orleans Saints right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who returned to the starting lineup in Week 8 and allowed zero quarterback pressures on 31 dropbacks.

Sweat currently ranks 50th out of 81 edge rushers in pass-rush win rate in 2023 (10.6%), and that production came while playing alongside one of the most talented defensive lines across the entire league. Now in Chicago, Sweat joins a unit that ranks dead last in pass-rush win rate (29.1%), and he will have all of the attention of opposing offenses as opposed to arguably being the fourth-most threatening pure pass-rusher in Washington. 

On top of that, the Bears acquired Sweat this week. While defensive line requires less of an adjustment than other positions, we’re not even certain that he will play a full snap share as he works his way into a new scheme and situation.