NFL Week 9 Betting: Midweek market update

• Helping you understand market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• A bet for Chargers-Browns: Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the movement on the Browns and grab them at +2 at home. I expect this line to move closer to a pick'em by Sunday.

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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

Click here to jump to a game:

Houston Texans @ New York Jets

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	NYJ -1	NYJ -1.5	NYJ -2
Total	43.5	42.5	42.5

Spread: The line moved slightly from 1.5 to 2 after opening, undoubtedly reflecting the loss of Stefon Diggs. The Texans are already thin at wide receiver, with Nico Collins still on IR.

Total: No movement from the opener.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	CIN -8.5	CIN -7.5	CIN -7.5
Total	45.5	45	46

Spread: A disappointing 20-point home loss to the Eagles has moved this line against Cincinnati from the lookahead. It seems likely to reach 7, though it’s uncertain whether it will cross that key number.

Total: The market initially pushed the total to 45.5, followed by a public release that drove it as high as 47 before settling back to 46. There are still plenty of 46.5s available.

Situational Factors: The Bengals have the edge, with the Raiders traveling east for an early kickoff.

New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	TEN -3	TEN -2.5	TEN -3
Total	39	37	38

Spread: This line quickly jumped to 3 after opening, with some 3.5s starting to appear. The shift reflects the likelihood that Drake Maye won’t play and Will Levis will return.

Total: The total has moved up by one point from the opener of 37 but hasn’t quite reached the lookahead number of 39. A few 37.5s remain, with some 39.5s beginning to surface.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the movement on the over and lock in over 38 now. Both defenses have struggled in recent weeks, and I expect that trend to continue in this matchup.

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	WAS -3	WAS -3	WAS -3.5
Total	44	43	43.5.

Spread: The line ticked up from 3 to 3.5 shortly after opening, with little movement since.

Total: The total saw a similar half-point jump after opening but has remained steady since.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	LAC -3.5	LAC -2.5	LAC -2
Total	39	39	42.5

Spread: Jameis Winston’s performance on Sunday caused the line to drop below 3, reaching as low as 1.5 on Monday. Support for the Chargers has since emerged, with the market now split between 1.5 and 2.

Total: There’s been a notable adjustment upward from the opener, as both offenses found their rhythm last week. The total sits at 42.5 across the board.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the movement on the Browns and grab them at +2 at home. I expect this line to move closer to a pick'em by Sunday.

Situational Factors: The Browns have the edge with the Chargers traveling east for an early kickoff.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	BUF -5.5	BUF -6	BUF -6
Total	48	48.5	50

Spread: No movement to report.

Total: After opening at 48.5, the market is split between 49.5 and 50. I don’t expect much additional movement in either direction.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	BAL -8.5	BAL -8.5	BAL -9.5
Total	44	43.5	45.5

Spread: The first movement dropped the line to 7.5, and it’s been all Ravens action since, pushing it just below 10.

Total: So far, there’s been little resistance to the movement toward the over, with the total now at 45.5 and even 46 in some spots. I expect some support for the under if it hits 46.5.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	NO -4.5	NO -6	NO -7
Total	46.5	44	43.5

Spread: Growing optimism around Derek Carr’s return on Sunday pushed the line from the lookahead of 4.5 to a touchdown. There was some support for the Panthers at +7, briefly dropping the line to 6.5, but it has since moved back to 7 following the Diontae Johnson trade.

Total: The total climbed as high as 45.5 at some books before a public pick release brought it back below the opener. It now sits at 43.5 across the board.

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	ATL -2	ATL -2.5	ATL -2.5
Total	48.5	50.5	52

Spread: While the market consensus sits at 2.5, a few books have moved the line to 3.

Total: A public pick release fueled movement toward the over, with the total peaking at 52.5 before settling back at 52. There’s a half-point variation available in either direction of the current number.

Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	CHI -1	PK	PK
Total	45.5	44	44.5

Spread: After opening as a pick'em, the market consensus remains there, though a few books have made each team a 1-point favorite at different times. It’s unlikely this line moves to anything significant.

Total: The total reached as high as the lookahead of 45.5 at some spots before dropping below 45.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PHI -6.5	PHI -6.5	PHI -7.5
Total	47	48	46

Spread: The opening number didn’t stay below a touchdown for long, as the Eagles quickly moved to 7.5-point favorites at nearly every book. We haven't seen an 8 yet, and it likely won’t last long if we do.

Total: A public pick release dropped the total from 48 to as low as 45.5 before settling at 46. A few 45.5s are still available in the market.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	GB -1	DET -4	DET -3
Total	50	47.5	47.5

Spread: Uncertainty surrounding Jordan Love’s groin injury has pushed Detroit to a field-goal favorite on the road. The market appears to be leaning toward Love missing the game. If he plays, Detroit will likely close as a slight favorite; if he sits, the line could move beyond the opening number of 4.

Total: The total has mostly hovered between 47 and 48, though it has dipped to 46 at some books. Love’s status adds significant uncertainty to the total, as well.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	SEA -3	SEA -1	LA -1.5
Total	47	48.5	48.5

Spread: With D.K. Metcalf still listed as questionable following Seattle’s 21-point home loss, Los Angeles has flipped to a small favorite. Most books have the line at 1.5, though 2s are starting to appear.

Total: Conflicting pick releases initially dropped the total to 46 on Monday, but it has since rebounded to the opening 48.5. If the line reaches 49, expect more money to come in on the under.

Situational Factors: The Rams have the advantage of extra rest following their Thursday night game.

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	MIN -7	MIN -6	MIN -5
Total	46.5	45.5	47

Spread: The line was already moving toward Indianapolis, but news of Joe Flacco getting the start accelerated the shift. Most books now list the Colts at +5, with a few at 5.5.

Total: Steady action has pushed the total up from the opener of 45.5 to 47. So far, no 47.5s have surfaced.

Buy/Sell: I’m selling the movement on the Colts and buying the Vikings at what I believe is their floor price of -5.

Situational Factors: The Vikings have the advantage of extra rest following their Thursday night game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	KC -8.5	KC -9	KC -9
Total	44	44	45.5

Spread: Opened at 9 and remains 9.

Total: A pick release pushed the total from 44 to as high as 46 before settling at 45.5. Typically, a 2-3 point shift is the sweet spot before action starts to come in on the other side, depending on the service behind the release.

Buy/Sell: The spread opened and remains at 9, but it shouldn’t be that high. I’m taking the Bucs at +9, as I expect this line to close in Wong teaser territory between 7.5 and 8.5.