• RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals: Conner has one of the most secure roles among running backs, handling the lion’s share of carries — especially near the goal line, where he has 50% of his team’s touches (third-most in the NFL) and 57% of touches inside the 5-yard line (sixth-most).
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RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
The Bears’ defense has been tough against the pass this season but vulnerable against the run, creating a funnel that encourages teams to attack them on the ground.
Conner, meanwhile, has one of the most secure roles among running backs, handling the lion’s share of carries—especially near the goal line, where he has 50% of his team’s touches (third-most in the NFL) and 57% of touches inside the 5-yard line (sixth-most).
Given the tendency for teams to favor the run against the Bears, expect Conner to receive plenty of touches as both a rusher and receiver, with a strong chance to find the end zone.
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RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
While his prices are rising, Kyren Williams finds himself in another favorable spot to score in this week’s divisional matchup against the Seahawks. Over the past month, Seattle’s defense has allowed a 52% success rate on runs (second-worst in the league) and the third-worst EPA per rush.
Williams is also the Rams' go-to player in the red zone, receiving 80% of the touches inside the 5-yard line and 75% of touches inside the red zone, which has helped him rack up 10 touchdowns this season. With the Rams projected to score 3-4 touchdowns, look for them to rely on Williams near the goal line against a vulnerable Seattle run defense.
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Long shot: TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cade Otton has been a surprisingly dominant red-zone target for the Buccaneers, with 10 targets in the red zone and six inside the 10-yard line, ranking seventh and fourth in the league, respectively.
With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin banged up, Otton has stepped into a larger role, seeing 10 targets in each of the last two weeks. He now faces a Chiefs defense that has allowed the most targets, receptions, and yards to opposing tight ends this season.
Although the Chiefs' defense has been generally solid, tough defenses haven’t stopped Baker Mayfield from accumulating yards and throwing touchdowns. Look for Mayfield to connect with Otton against a defense that has struggled to contain tight ends.
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