• Buffalo's brilliance: Led by Josh Allen, the Bills (-11.5 vs Packers) are 7-2-1 ATS as home favorites of 7+ points; Green Bay double-digit dogs for first time with Aaron Rodgers.
• Kyle's world: San Francisco has covered four straight on the road against Rams; Kyle hanahan is 8-3 SU and ATS in the regular season against Sean McVay.
• Fade the Bucs +1.5 vs Baltimore?: Tom Brady is 5-0 ATS since 2014 when getting points at home, but home underdogs are 4-9 ATS on “Thursday Night Football” since '07.
Last updated: Tuesday Oct. 25, 1:15 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 5 mins
Here's a sampling of obscure, and actionable trends in Week 8 marquee games:
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 45.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
– Since 2007, Home Underdogs are 4-9 ATS when playing an out-of-conference opponent on “Thursday Night Football”
– Since 2020, TNF matchups of out-of-conference opponents have gone 6-1 to the Under
• Non-conference TNF matchups are infrequent, and history suggests that backing the Ravens -1.5 would be the profitable play. Additionally, it appears that such matchups have begun to skew under the point total. Perhaps the lack of familiarity between out-of-conference foes contributes to low-scoring games.
– Since 2014, Tom Brady is 5-0 ATS as a Home Underdog
• Tom Brady has burned those who have bet against him in this spot, and this may be an inopportune time to fade the Buccaneers.
– Lamar Jackson is 12-1 SU vs the NFC
• Prior to the Ravens' Week 6 loss to the New York Giants, Lamar had an unblemished record versus the NFC. Such a record is likely a consequence of being favored in a majority of these games, but there is a chance that the Ravens' unique style of offense confounds less familiar opponents.
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 39)
– The Favorite is 19-13 ATS in London Games
– Since 2018, the Jaguars are 4-12 ATS as a favorite
• These conflicting trends suggest reluctance in betting either side in this game. The Jaguars have consistently struggled under the weight of expectations and have been an extremely profitable fade in spots like these. However, London games tend to be chalk, and those betting on the reeling Broncos should be cognizant of this trend.
– Jacksonville is a perfect 4-0 to the Over away from home this season
• Four games is not a large enough sample size to endorse betting an over. The Broncos have an exceptional defense, and it is counterintuitive to suggest the Jacksonville offense may be more potent away from its home stadium.
New England Patriots (-1.5, 40.5) @ New York Jets
– Since 2016, New England is a 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS vs the Jets
• In this same time period, the Jets have not fielded a team capable of competing with New England. The Patriots' perfect mark versus New York is not as alarming as it might seem, however such a streak ATS is noteworthy.
• Conversely, it is not unreasonable to believe that the Jets are currently the better team. Perhaps they can end this streak Sunday, but fading Bill Belichick in this spot has not been profitable in the past.
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 42.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
– Kyle Shanahan is 8-3 SU and ATS in Regular Season games versus Sean McVay
– San Francisco has covered four straight on the Road against the Rams
• The 49ers and HC Kyle Shanahan have consistently had the Rams' number. San Francisco throttled the Rams less than a month ago, and similar results would not be surprising in Week 8. Shanahan and the 49ers lost their most recent contest with the Rams in SoFi Stadium, but they still covered the spread.
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (-3, 45.5)
– Daniel Jones is 15-6 ATS on the Road, 14-4 ATS as an Underdog
– Pete Carroll is 15-7 ATS at Home when Russell Wilson is not Starting at QB
• This is another instance of conflicting trends, both of which could be construed as justification for backing either side. Neither of these trends should be the basis of a bet, but there is no fault in citing either one as additional reasoning to back the Seahawks or Giants.
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills (-11.5, 47.5)
– Since 2021, Home Favorites vs Non-Division Opponents are 1-9 ATS on SNF
• This trend continued this past week, when the Pittsburgh Steelers covered a seven-point spread against the Miami Dolphins. It is likely a much noisier trend than it is actionable, but it is active nonetheless.
– Aaron Rodgers is 15-10 ATS as a Road Underdog of more than a field goal
– Josh Allen is 7-2-1 ATS as a Home Favorite of more than 7 points
• Aaron Rodgers historically thrived in these scenarios, however the Green Bay QB has never been an underdog to such a degree. Perhaps this trend isn’t pertinent to handicapping this game.
• Conversely, Josh Allen has smoked teams in this spot throughout his career. Covering large spreads has not been an issue for the young QB, and the Bills have only lost one of these games outright.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 47) @ Cleveland Browns
– Since 2012, MNF Home Underdogs are 16-12 ATS versus Division Opponents, and these games are 7-20-1 to the Under
– This Season, Home Underdogs are 8-3 ATS versus Division Opponents, and these games are 9-2 to the Under
• Divisional games are prone to be ugly, but especially so when the road team is favored. Unless there is strong conviction to do so, it is suggested to avoid betting the Bengals on Monday Night.
• The under may be a strong play in this contest. The Bengals are humming on offense, but the Browns should be able to disrupt the pocket in ways that Cincinnati’s previous opponents could not. Additionally, Cleveland’s offense has begun to stall, and a 20-point game on Monday Night would be a triumph for the team.
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