• Bet Puka Nacua OVER 60.5 receiving yards: A receiving yardage total of 60 is low for a player who has proved he is worth double-digit targets against one of the NFL's leakier pass defenses.
• Bet Lamar Jackson UNDER 212.5 passing yards: Even if the weather is fine and the game is played at a standard pace, the Ravens still face the task of having to move the ball downfield against one of the NFL's stingiest coverage units.
• Bet $5 and get $200 in guaranteed bonus bets! Click here to sign up with FanDuel!
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Another slate of the 2023 NFL season has come and gone, and we are onto Week 7. Our bets last week did not produce exceptional results, but there was a 0.2 unit profit nonetheless.
Between this article last week and the Saints-Jaguars game on Thursday night, our nine bets at an average price of +141 resulted in four winners and five losers, with Blake Grupe saving the week by landing both the over 1.5 field goals and over 6.5 points bets. Our season-long record now sits at +6.94 units (betting to win one unit per bet) for a 15.25% return on investment.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams — Puka Nacua Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-117 Caesars)
Cooper Kupp returned to his previous role while back from injury in Week 5, but Puka Nacua continued to produce against the Eagles, generating 11 targets compared to Kupp’s 13 (playing every single offensive snap to boot). Nacua failed to get too involved in the Week 6 follow-up against Arizona, but quarterback Matthew Stafford threw only 24 passes in that game because Kyren Williams took over the in second half, putting up 154 rushing yards on 18 carries.
Williams is now injured, and the Rams' backfield consists of untested rookies or veteran backs who have been with the team only a few days. The Steelers are a better team than the Cardinals and should be able to stay more competitive. Their coverage unit, however, has been one of the worst in the league despite having played only relatively low-volume passing offenses in the 49ers, Browns, Raiders and Ravens while also giving up more than 300 passing yards and 30 points to C.J. Stroud.
The Rams do not spread the ball out too much, and Kupp and Nacua should continue to see the bulk of the targets. A receiving yardage total of 60 is low for a player who has proved he is worth double-digit targets against one of the NFL's leakier pass defenses.
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens — Lamar Jackson Under 212.5 Pass Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Both the Lions and Ravens are running the ball at league-high rates with limited downfield passing games, leading to the 18th and 28th average depth target depths, respectively. Detroit is also targeting players in the middle of the field (between the numbers) at a league-high rate, so the clock in this game could run down quickly.
Lions running back David Montgomery is out, while Craig Reynolds is questionable and Jahmyr Gibbs is returning from injury, so running the ball at their usual rate may not be entirely plausible. However, Detroit should still run down the clock with the short, middle-of-the-field throws amid expected strong winds.
Detroit is giving up the sixth-fewest yards per coverage snap to opposing offenses, so even if the weather is fine and the game is played at a standard pace, the Ravens still face the task of having to move the ball downfield against one of the stingiest coverage units in the league this year.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.