• Bet the under 48 points on Thursday Night Football: The Broncos are historically bad on defense, but the offense has had its moments this season. The real surprise here is the Chiefs' defense, which is allowing just 16.0 points per game. Look for the Chiefs to lean on their defense here, allowing the under to hit in Kansas City on a short week.
• WR Rashee Rice for a fantasy breakout? Rice is behind several Kansas City receivers in routes run this season, but he is second in yards (173) and first in catches (17). His role in the offense continues to grow each week, and tonight could be the breakout game, as the Broncos can’t cover any receivers opposite Patrick Surtain II.
• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Matchup to watch: Chiefs RT Jawaan Taylor vs. Broncos EDGE Nik Bonitto
One of the reasons the Broncos felt comfortable trading Randy Gregory for a late-round pick swap was due to Bonitto's emergence. The second-year edge rusher from Oklahoma has four sacks, one hit and two hurries over the last two weeks and is really starting to emerge as a force for Denver. He’ll face Taylor on Thursday, who has the fourth-worst PFF grade among all qualifying tackles.
Fantasy breakout: WR Rashee Rice
Rice is behind several Kansas City receivers in routes run this season, but he is second in yards (173) and first in catches (17). His role in the offense continues to grow each week, and tonight could be the breakout game, as the Broncos can’t cover any receivers opposite Patrick Surtain II.
Favorite bet: Under 48 points (-110)
The Broncos are historically bad on defense, but the offense has had its moments this season. The real surprise here is the Chiefs' defense, which is allowing just 16.0 points per game. Look for the Chiefs to lean on their defense here, allowing the under to hit in Kansas City on a short week.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Matchup to watch: Ravens C Tyler Linderbaum vs. Titans DI Jeffery Simmons
Linderbaum has been banged up this season, but he is still playing at a high level. He is the seventh-highest-graded center through the first five games, but he will be challenged by Simmons here in Week 6. Don't expect the Ravens to leave Linderbaum alone with Simmons, as Tennessee has a considerable size and strength advantage. How the Ravens handle Simmons will likely dictate who wins this game.
Fantasy breakout: WR Zay Flowers
Flowers had a nightmare game in Week 5, as he dropped multiple passes and stumbled over his feet on a play that could have been a 70-plus-yard touchdown. Flowers was targeted 11 times and totaled 73 yards, but it could have been the biggest day of his career. Look for him to bounce back in Week 6, as the Titans don't have the cornerbacks to match up with him. His role in the offense is pretty stable, and it’s clear he already has a good connection with Lamar Jackson.
Favorite bet: Titans +3.5
The Ravens are coming off a physical AFC North game they gave away to the Steelers and are now getting 3.5 points in London. That seems high. Take the Titans here, as their defensive line should be able to keep Jackson in check. This feels like a 20-17 game, so getting the extra half-point here is a big win for the Titans.
Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Matchup to watch: Falcons LT Jake Matthews vs. Commanders DE Chase Young
Young is finally starting to turn into the player who went No. 2 in the 2020 NFL Draft. He was a monster in Week 5, recording double-digit pressures for the first time in his career. He'll have a tough matchup in Week 6, as both of the Falcons tackles have graded well this season.
Fantasy breakout: WR Jahan Dotson
The Falcons will use A.J. Terrell to follow the opposing team's best receiver, which means he'll likely see a ton of Terry McLaurin on Sunday. That should leave plenty of targets open for Dotson, who has been underwhelming this season. If he is ever going to have a breakout game, this is the time and the place to do it.
Favorite bet: Under 42
Both teams are starting young quarterbacks, which typically means we'll see a low-scoring contest. Don't expect the Commanders to completely abandon the run on Sunday, as that isn't a formula for success for them. Instead, look for both offenses to stay balanced and for the scoring to come at a premium in this NFC matchup.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) vs. Chicago Bears
Matchup to watch: Vikings WR Jordan Addison vs. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson
With Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson expected to go on the injured reserve list, this will be the first time we see Addison as the team's No. 1 receiver. It will be fascinating to see if the Vikings play him more on the outside or if they use him more in the slot to avoid Johnson. The Vikings will need to create chunk plays in the passing game to win, and Addison will likely see a big increase in opportunities with Jefferson out.
FANTASY BREAKOUT: RB Roschon Johnson
With Bears RB Khalil Herbert out for the next several weeks due to an ankle injury, the expectation is that Johnson will take over as the lead back. The Vikings have surrendered a ton of fantasy points to opposing running backs this year, and this is a fantastic spot for Johnson in his first start. Look for the Bears to use multiple running backs to replace Herbert but for Johnson to see the lion’s share of the work in the backfield.
Favorite bet: Under 46 points
Both defenses have struggled this season, but 46 points is quite a bit with Justin Jefferson out of the lineup. Look for the Vikings to have a more balanced attack on offense with Jefferson out, which should lead to a lot of long drives and limited scoring opportunities.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Matchup to watch: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase vs. Seahawks CB Tariq Woolen
The Seahawks will throw several cornerbacks on Chase on Sunday, but Woolen should see most of the snaps on the outside. Woolen is having another fine season but has yet to record an interception. If the Seahawks can find a way to slow Chase down, they shouldn't have a problem keeping this game close.
Fantasy fade: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
You probably aren't starting JSN in any of your fantasy leagues, but this is another matchup to avoid. The Bengals are among the best nickel teams in the league and have a strong pass rush. Expect the Seahawks to counter using heavier sets, including more tight ends on the field. Smith-Njigba’s role in Seattle likely will only get bigger if there is an injury to D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett.
Favorite bet: Under 46
Despite the offensive explosion from the Bengals last week, this might be a game where they try to protect Joe Burrow. The Bengals have a Week 7 bye, and the best strategy might be to run the ball and lean on their defense. This projects as a 21-20 type of game in Cincinnati, with both teams relying on their run game and defenses.
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Matchup to watch: Browns RT Dawand Jones vs. 49ers EDGE Nick Bosa
Bosa is starting to heat up after a few early-season games without any sacks. He’ll face a rookie right tackle in Jones, who has done well in pass protection this year. This Ohio State-on-Ohio State matchup should be a joy to watch.
Fantasy fade: Browns TE David Njoku
The 49ers don't allow teams to throw the ball in the middle of the field. Fred Warner is the best coverage linebacker in the league and will force the Browns to go elsewhere in the passing game. If you can bench Njoku in Week 6, do it. There won't be a lot of opportunities here on Sunday.
Favorite bet: 49ers -5
The 49ers must travel across the country to play the Browns coming off a bye week. That usually is a bad sign for the West Coast team having to play at 1 p.m. ET. But that shouldn’t matter, especially if Deshaun Watson is injured and unable to go. The 49ers are the best team in the NFL and should be able to win by at least a touchdown on the road.
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
Matchup to watch: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill vs. Panthers CB C.J. Henderson
With Jaycee Horn out for the foreseeable future due to an injury, Henderson has to step up in a more prominent role. That has yet to happen, as he's graded out as the 85th-ranked cornerback in the NFL. Hill has gone over 150 yards in three of his five games this season, and it wouldn’t be a shock if he did it again on Sunday at home against the 0-5 Panthers.
Fantasy breakout: RB Raheem Mostert
De'Von Achane will miss the next several weeks due to a foot injury, which means a more prominent role for Mostert. Mostert leads the NFL in touchdowns with eight and is averaging over 88 yards per game. With Achane out, Mostert will likely see a few more carries and even more goal-line work.
Favorite bet: Under 48.5
Everyone knows how explosive the Dolphins offense is. But the same can’t be said for the Panthers, who are averaging only 18 points per game. The Dolphins will score a lot of points, but expect Carolina to be held around the season average on Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
Matchup to watch: Colts RT Braden Smith vs. Jaguars EDGE Travon Walker
Walker has been a major disappointment for the Jaguars this season, recording just 12 pressures and three QB hits in five games. The bigger concern is his ability to stop the run as his run-defense grade is only 53.3. He’ll see a ton of Braden Smith on Sunday, who has established himself as one of the top right tackles in the league. The former No. 1 overall pick really needs a big game soon to ease some of the concerns around him.
Fantasy fade: RB Zack Moss
Congratulations if you scooped up Moss late in your drafts or on the waiver wire — he's likely helped you grab a few early-season wins. But this isn't a great matchup for him, and it only makes sense that the Colts would increase Jonathan Taylor‘s workload moving forward. Moss should still have a role, but this isn't a week to keep him in your starting lineup.
Favorite bet: Under 45.5
The Colts have done well on offense under Gardner Minshew, but this could be a tough matchup on the road for the veteran quarterback. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been inconsistent on offense, and the Colts present mismatch problems in the trenches. Expect a 21-20 type of game in Jacksonville, with the under ultimately hitting.
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) vs. Houston Texans
Matchup to watch: Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Saints CB Marshon Lattimore
One of the best stories of the NFL this season has been the breakout year for Collins. During the 2022 season, Collins recorded just 481 yards and two touchdowns. This season, he's already at 467 yards and three touchdowns through five games. He'll be in a battle on Sunday against Lattimore, one of the top outside cornerbacks in the NFL. If Collins can perform well in that matchup, it's time to buy the hype.
Fantasy breakout: WR Chris Olave
Since Derek Carr suffered his AC sprain, Olave's production has gone way down. Over the last two weeks, he's totaled just 16 yards on 11 targets. But this is an excellent opportunity for him in Week 6, as the Texans will be without their top cornerback, Derek Stingley Jr. (hamstring). Olave should see multiple downfield targets and will likely convert a few into big gains.
Favorite bet: Over 42.5
The Saints scored 34 points on the road in New England, and the Texans are averaging a modest 23.0 points per game this season. This is a suspiciously low line, but expect both teams to score 20-plus points on Sunday and for the over to hit with ease.
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
Matchup to watch: Raiders WR Davante Adams vs. Patriots CB J.C. Jackson
Jackson returned to New England after two rough seasons in Los Angeles. He'll likely see a ton of Adams on Sunday, as the Patriots are without three of their top four cornerbacks. Adams was held in check in Week 5 after dealing with a shoulder injury. But this is a favorable matchup for Adams, one the Raiders will look to exploit.
Fantasy breakout: WR Jakobi Meyers
Meyers had a nightmare game the last time these two teams met when he played for the Patriots, as he threw away the game to Chandler Jones on a walk-off touchdown. But he’s played exceptionally well for Las Vegas, racking up 241 yards and three touchdowns with Jimmy Garoppolo under center (three games). Look for the Raiders to keep him involved in the offense, especially on third down. This has all the makings of a revenge game for Meyers after what happened last year between these two teams.
Favorite bet: Under 41.5
The Raiders are 2-3 on the season despite averaging 15.8 points per game. They have yet to score more than 18 points in a game this season. And yet, they don't even have the worst offense in this matchup. New England averages 11.0 points per game, and things are getting worse. Neither team creates big plays in the passing game, which should help keep the scoring down on Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Matchup to watch: Rams WR Tutu Atwell vs. Cardinals CB Marco Wilson
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua get a lot of attention for the Rams, and rightfully so. But Atwell is off to the best start of his career. He nearly hit a 67-yard touchdown last week but was slightly overthrown by Matthew Stafford. He’ll see a ton of Wilson on Sunday, who has graded out as the 100th-ranked cornerback in the NFL. Look for the Rams to take a few shots down the field to Atwell in Week 6.
Fantasy breakout: WR Marquise Brown
One of the most encouraging stats for the Cardinals on offense has been the usage of Marquise Brown. He has received double-digit targets in three of the last four games and that has helped Arizona create some big plays through the air. Expect the same on Sunday, as the Cardinals will need Brown to hit a few explosive plays to keep the offense moving.
Favorite bet: Under 48.5
The Cardinals have been surprisingly good on offense this season, but that doesn't feel like it will last. The Cardinals lost James Conner (knee) for the next four games and don't have much talent in their backfield without him. The Rams have been a league-average offense this season, averaging 22.4 points per game. Expect them to be around that range on Sunday, allowing the under to hit in Los Angeles.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs. New York Jets
Matchup to watch: Jets LG Laken Tomlinson vs. Eagles DT Jalen Carter
Jalen Carter is the highest-graded interior defensive tackle in the NFL through five games. And on Sunday, he'll face an offensive line that just lost its best player (Alijah Vera-Tucker). Expect the Eagles to move Carter all around the formation, making it more difficult for the Jets to double-team him consistently.
Fantasy fade: WR DeVonta Smith
Unfortunately, Smith will draw the tougher assignment on Sunday, as he’ll mostly be lined up against Sauce Gardner. Smith is coming off a one-catch, 6-yard game against the Rams in Week 5. This is another week where he might be a flex play at best.
Favorite bet: Eagles -7
The Eagles have not played particularly well this season but are 5-0 on the year. But expect this to be their most dominating win yet as they match up exceptionally well against the Jets. It's hard to see how the Jets will be able to score 17 points in this game. Take the Eagles -7 with confidence in this matchup.
Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup to watch: Lions TE Sam LaPorta vs. Buccaneers LB Devin White
LaPorta has been one of the few bright spots at the tight end position this season, catching 25 passes in the first five games. He'll face one of the better linebacker duos in the league in Week 5, and it will be fascinating to see how the Buccaneers try to match up with him on Sunday.
Fantasy fade: QB Jared Goff
Goff is PFF’s No. 1 graded quarterback through the first five games of the season. But he hasn’t been a fantastic fantasy quarterback on the road. In two road games, he's averaged just 231.5 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game. Tampa Bay is pretty solid in the secondary, which could lead Detroit to run even more than usual. Leave Goff on your bench this week.
Favorite bet: Over 43.5
The Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL and are averaging 29.6 points per game. Even against a pretty good defense on the road, we should expect the Lions to score 24-plus points on Sunday. So, can Tampa Bay keep this game close and score 20 points, coming out of a bye? That feels like a pretty good bet, which makes the over a wise pick here.
New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills (-14)
Matchup to watch: Bills WR Stefon Diggs vs. Giants CB Adoree' Jackson
Diggs is off to a fantastic start to the season, having racked up 520 yards and five touchdowns in five games. He’s been absolutely incredible and has another plus matchup on Sunday Night Football. Jackson is the best corner for the Giants, but this is still a significant advantage in favor of the Bills.
Fantasy breakout: Bills RB James Cook
The Bills had no success running against the Jaguars, but this is a much better spot for Cook. The Giants have given up a ton of rushing yards this season, including 222 to the Dolphins in Week 5. Cook likely won’t have that type of day, but 100-plus total yards from scrimmage feels plausible.
Favorite bet: Bills -14
This is a tough spot for the Giants as the Bills are coming off a bad loss and need the win. With this game at home in Buffalo on Sunday Night Football, you can expect a loud crowd and a fun atmosphere. The Bills should have no problem slowing down Daniel Jones — if he even plays after suffering a neck injury. The 14 points are a ton, but the Giants can’t score, and the Bills can light up the scoreboard.
Dallas Cowboys (-2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Matchup to watch: Chargers LT Rashawn Slater vs. Cowboys EDGE Micah Parsons
The Cowboys will move Parsons around in this matchup and he could even see more snaps at linebacker with Leighton Vander Esch out. But look for the Cowboys to go at Slater with their top pass-rusher. Slater is one of the best young offensive tackles in the league and is having a nice bounce-back season after missing most of the 2022 season due to an injury.
Fantasy breakout: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
Lamb had a quiet game in Week 5 as the 49ers held him in check. But after publicly voicing his frustrations, this could be the “squeaky wheel gets the grease” game for Lamb. Look for the Cowboys to move him around and get him double-digit targets on Monday.
Favorite bet: Under 51 points
The Cowboys had an abysmal showing on defense in Week 5, allowing 42 points. Expect Dan Quinn and his crew to get back on track with a strong outing against the Chargers. The right side of their offensive line can be attacked, meaning Chargers QB Justin Herbert will be under pressure most of the game.
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