• Bet the 49ers (-3.5) to keep rolling against the Browns: Much like in their matchup against the Cowboys, the 49ers have key matchup advantages against Cleveland. They appear to be a dominant force in 2023.
• Bet the Bills (over 30.5 team total) to rebound vs. Giants: The Giants' defense has let four of their five opponents score at least 30 points against them this season.
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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
If you are betting on NFL spreads, you better do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, we are here to share our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move.
We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 8-8 (-1.6 units) on the year so far. Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord.
If you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, -110) @ Cleveland Browns
• While the Browns are coming off a bye, so too are the 49ers after barely breaking a sweat at home against the Dallas Cowboys. San Francisco also hasn’t had to leave California in a month and enters the game with great health.
• The Browns have a banged-up quarterback in Deshaun Watson who has the longest average time to throw in the NFL (3.23 seconds). That is not a great recipe for success against the NFL's best pass-rush unit.
• Cleveland edge defender Myles Garrett‘s 92.3 PFF grade ranks second in the NFL. The only defensive player with a better grade is the 49ers' Nick Bosa. The issue for the Browns is that Myles Garrett will line up across from the best left tackle in football, Trent Williams, about 70% of the time. Meanwhile, Nick Bosa will go against Dawand Jones, who has been good but not great, ranking 25th in pass-blocking grade among tackles.
• Much like in their matchup against the Cowboys, the 49ers have key matchup advantages. They appear to be a dominant force in 2023.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets — Under 42.5 (-110)
• Philadelphia is 5-0 and has scored 23 or more points in every game thus far. But some underlying metrics could lead to trouble in this matchup. The Eagles rank 31st in converting first-down plays into a new series of downs and place second in the NFL in converting third downs. Early-down performance is more stable and predictive, and the Jets' defense is currently eighth in the NFL in conversions allowed on first downs. Getting into second- or third-and-long situations against a Jets defense that ranks sixth in the NFL in defensive success rate could cause problems for an offense that has been solid but not yet spectacular this season.
• In Week 1, New York held Bills quarterback Josh Allen to his lowest-graded game of the season, by far, with a 52.3 mark, three interceptions on four turnover-worthy plays and five sacks taken. In Week 4, New York held Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to his lowest-graded game of the season, by far — one of the worst games of his NFL career. Mahomes earned a 48.4 grade with two interceptions. The Jets' pass rush and secondary will cause problems for Jalen Hurts, whose offensive line has allowed the second-lowest pressure rate on true pass sets. New York's defense ranks third in the NFL in pressure rate.
• Breece Hall was the spark the Jets' offense needed against a Denver defense that ranks dead last in expected points allowed per play and 30th against the run. Philadelphia, on the other hand, places 12th in EPA allowed per rush, and their defensive front could wreak havoc if the Jets' Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker miss this game. Zach Wilson can’t lean on an explosive run game and will find himself in plenty of disadvantageous situations throughout the game. Philadelphia was also extremely conservative in the red zone in their Week 5 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, almost exclusively running the ball and settling for field goals.
Teaser (-120): Washington Commanders (+8.5) @ Atlanta Falcons & Houston Texans (+8.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
• This is a Wong Teaser, which happens when each side you tease crosses both the numbers three and seven, as is the case here with the Commanders moving from +2.5 to +8.5 and the Texans moving from +2.5 to +8.5. Because three and seven are the most common end-of-game point differentials, crossing those numbers gives the bettor more outcomes for which each side wins.
• This is a classic Wong, with a low total of 41.5, and we are betting the underdogs in these matchups. While Desmond Ridder might’ve put together the best performance of his career against the Texans in Week 5, it shouldn’t change our opinion of him too much, especially against a weakened Texans secondary. If given time, Sam Howell has shown that he has the arm to move the ball. The Falcons rank just 25th in pressure rate and 29th in sack conversion rate this season.
• C.J. Stroud has been impressive thus far in his rookie season and could already be better than Derek Carr. The Saints are coming off a beatdown of the Patriots, but it’s tough to upgrade or downgrade them, considering the state of New England's roster and how other teams have dominated the Patriots. This game also falls into the classic Wong bucket, with a low total of 40.5 and us going with the underdog.
Buffalo Bills team total OVER 30.5 (-110) vs. New York Giants
• The Bills' offense didn’t have the most inspiring performance across the pond against the Jaguars in Week 5. But before that, the offense had been rolling with three straight games of 37-plus points. Despite the small setback, the unit still ranks third in expected points added per play and second in success rate. Plus, the Bills didn’t suffer any major injuries on offense this week.
• Prior to Week 5, quarterback Josh Allen had the NFL's highest EPA per play figure against the blitz. Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale loves to blitz, regardless of the matchup, and will probably continue to play into the Bills’ strengths in this game. Stefon Diggs has torched any cornerback who has lined up across from him, and that should continue in Week 6.
• The Giants' defense this year ranks 29th in EPA allowed per play and 27th in success rate allowed. They’ve let four of their five opponents score at least 30 points against them.
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