• Tease Bucs (from -2.5 to -8.5) at Steelers: Tom Brady can still pick apart any defense when needed. Teasing Tampa down to -2 is more about how Bucs ‘D' outclasses Pittsburgh offense.
• Potential teaser leg: Jaguars (from +2.5 to +8.5) vs. Colts: Not even a month ago, Indianapolis was shut out in Jacksonville. Now, the Colts are 2.5-point favorites. That seems a bit odd.
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Last updated: Wed. Oct. 12, 12:45 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 min
With the sports betting industry evolving and gaining popularity, so is the way you can make NFL wagers. The days of only betting on sides and totals are over.
One popular way bettors try to find value on NFL lines is by playing teasers. An NFL teaser is similar to a parlay; you add multiple legs that must all win for the bet to pay out. The key difference from parlays is that a teaser allows you to buy points like 6, 6.5 or 7 in a direction that lowers risk.
Teaser Tips to Follow
• Never Cross over 0
• Tease through key numbers 3 & 7
• Tease games with lower totals, ideally anything 49 or less.
Here are four teaser legs I like in Week 6, along with my two favorite two-team, six-point teasers:
Jacksonville Jaguars (from +2.5 to +8.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
Not even a month ago, the Colts were shut out by these Jaguars. Now, Indianapolis is 2.5-point favorites. That seems a bit odd.
• Matt Ryan struggles against a team with top-10 pass defense: In 8 games last season facing a top -10 pass defense, Ryan averaged 245 yards with a total of 7 TDs and 9 INTs with a record of 2-6. That trend has continued into 2022, when, in two games against a top-10 pass defense (Jacksonville and Denver), he averaged 223 yards with 0 TDs and 5 INTs.
• Jacksonville's pass ‘D' is top 10 in EPA/Play, Success Rate, Passing TDs Allowed, and Forced Incompletions: And Ryan's Colts could be without Jonathan Taylor and forced to throw more often.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from -8 to -2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
We just saw the Buffalo Bills torch the Steelers secondary, with Josh Allen throwing for a career-high 424 yards. Tampa Bay's offense might not be as explosive as Buffalo's, but Tom Brady can still pick apart any defense when needed.
• But teasing the Buccaneers down to -2 is more about their defense matching up with the Steelers' offense: Tampa ranks 4th in successful defensive drive percentage, prohibiting points on 75% of opponents' offensive drives. That does not bode well for Pittsburgh, which ranks 31st in successful offensive drive percentage (26.3%).
• Tampa Bay also ranks inside the top 5 in EPA/Play and Success Rate defending the pass: Although the Bucs surprisingly are about average at stopping the run currently, they have the NFL's 3rd-most sacks (19) and second-most interceptions (7).
New England Patriots (from +2.5 to +8.5) @ Cleveland Browns
Heading into Week 5, the Detroit Lions had the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL (35 points per game). The Patriots' defense shut out the Lions, 29-0, and New England's offense was led by a third-string rookie. This week, the Patriots get a more balanced offense in the Cleveland Browns.
• Cleveland has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL: Led by the NFL's top rusher Nick Chubb, the Browns' offense is tops in the league in rushing EPA/play (0.127) and explosive plays rushing (27).
• Although the Patriots have struggled against the run—27th in EPA/Rush allowed—the Cleveland Browns defense is 28th: One thing Bill Belichick does well is focusing on a team's strengths and trying to neutralize them. Belichick will again lean on his running game to keep Cleveland's offense off the field and keep this one close.
Kansas City Chiefs (from +2.5 to +8.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
I love that we get the Chiefs at home in this showdown with the Buffalo Bills. With the Bills looking for revenge from that heartbreaking playoff last year, this should be an exciting game for football fans.
• The Bills and Chiefs are one and two in passing EPA/Play and Success rate, respectively, and both Mahomes and Allen rank inside the top 4 in passer rating: These electric offenses are led by arguably the game's two best quarterbacks.
• Kansas City has played the 11th hardest schedule in terms of opposing defenses, while the Bills have played the 5th easiest schedule: Let's give the Chiefs a light advantage offensively, as they arguably have more weapons and have played a stronger schedule of opposing defenses.
This game, like last January, may come down to which team has the ball last.
Fun Fact: Mahomes has only lost two games in his career by more than 8 points.
Favorite 2-team, 6-point teasers in Week 6
• Bucs -2 / Patriots +8.5 (-120)
• Bucs -2 / Chiefs +8.5 (-120)
Kurt's teasers went 1-1 in Week 6, bringing his overall season record to 6-10 (-4.11 units).
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