• Bet Browns RB Nick Chubb o18.5 longest rush (-120) vs. Chargers: L.A. allowed a carry of at least 50 yards to a running back past three games; Cleveland creating Perfectly Blocked run at NFL's second-highest rate (45%).
• Bet Dolphins -3.5 at Jets: Dolphins QB1 on Sunday, Teddy Bridgewater an amazing 24-6 ATS on the road in his career.
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Last updated: Sun. Oct. 9, 9:25 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
Here are the PFF staff best bets for the early-afternoon window in Week 5:
Arjun Menon: Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb o18.5 longest rush (-120 BetMGM; playable to 19.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
• The Browns have the second-highest rate of Perfectly Blocked runs created by their offensive line and any other blockers on that given play (45%). The Chargers have gone three straight weeks of allowing a carry of at least 50 yards to a running back, and not having Joey Bosa will hurt against a stout Browns offensive line.
Timo Riske: Seattle Seahawks ml (+180) at New Orleans Saints
weekly update of the moving the chains chart on offense.
Are the Seahawks for real or is that just the effect of playing the Falcons and Lions back-to-back? pic.twitter.com/pNcGCmYJh5
— Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) October 4, 2022
• The market expects the Seahawks offense to regress to the mean, but New Orleans has the second-lowest pass-rush rate in football through four weeks: I’m not agreeing with the market because I don’t think the Saints defense is built to stop the Seahawks. One of the most stable parts of defense is performance when rushing the passer, and the Saints have disappointed, generating pressure at the second-lowest rate in the NFL through four weeks (21%).
Kurt Blakeway: Tease Minnesota Vikings -1 (from -7) vs. Chicago Bears + San Francisco 49ers -.5 (from -6.5) at Carolina Panthers
• The Bears' 2-2 record is a bit deceiving. They are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they might be the worst offensive team in the league. With PFF offensive grades of 28th overall, 32nd in passing, and 14th in rushing, it is easy to understand why the Bears have the second-worst scoring offense in the league.
• The 49ers might cover the 6.5-point spread without having to tease, but I like teasing it down to -.5 in case they have a letdown spot after a big division win in Week 4.
Richard Janvrin: Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert anytime TD (+165) at New York Jets
• Dolphins running back Chase Edmonds has been ineffective to start his Dolphins career, never clearing more than 33 rushing yards in a single game. In Week 4, Mostert had 17 touches compared to just seven from Edmonds. With quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out, the team will turn to backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater is a fine passer, but they could lean more on the run game here, as the Jets allow nearly 110 yards per game. Mostert didn’t score despite 17 touches last week, but the Dolphins were trailing. Expect the Dolphins to lead in this one, creating a positive game script for the new starting running back.
Nathan Jahnke: Jets WR Corey Davis u3.5 receptions vs. Dolphins
Davis — whose role is declining — caught three passes in his one game against Miami last season despite being on the field for 93% of his team's offensive snaps in a losing effort where New York passed 39 times. This Miami ‘D' increasingly uses man coverage, against which Davis struggles: He's caught a ball on one in every 12.2 pass routes against man defenses compared to a catch every 7.7 routes run against zone over the last two seasons.
Tommy Jurgens: Dolphins -3.5 at Jets
Teddy Covers: Miami QB Teddy Bridgewater has an unreal ATS record of 24-6 when playing on the road. The oddsmakers have consistently undervalued Bridgewater’s value to the spread, and there is no reason to believe this is not still the case.
PFF staff best bets are 38-32 entering Sunday in Week 5.
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