• Figuring it out: While it has been a slow start to the season for the Jags’ passing offense, there is still reason for optimism. Drops are notoriously noisy, and no team has dropped more passes than the Jaguars.
• WR Christian Kirk in a good spot: The Falcons play mostly zone coverage, where Kirk has earned a target on 28% of his snaps since coming to Jacksonville compared to 17% for WR Calvin Ridley and 20% for TE Evan Engram. With WR Zay Jones out, this should be a condensed target share with Kirk as the lead target in a terrific matchup.
• Get $200 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $200 in bonus bets. Join FanDuel today!
Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Story: WR Tank Dell and QB C.J. Stroud dominate the Pittsburgh Steelers’ man coverage
• Over the last two years, Pittsburgh has played man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Enter rookie wide receiver Tank Dell, who has shredded man coverage this season.
• In his limited sample, Dell has been the best receiver in football against man coverage. He is the best separator and leads the NFL in yards per route run. While that will likely not hold, this line is badly mispriced if the above graph is even directionally right.
• Against man coverage — where targets are more predictable — Dell has led the Texans in target share by a healthy margin. And given that he’ll be running his routes against CB Levi Wallace, who ranks 86th at his position in PFF grade — Dell should be targeted often and with success.
FanDuel build: +2496
- QB C.J. Stroud: 275+ passing yards
- WR Tank Dell: 100+ receiving yards
- WR Tank Dell: Touchdown scorer
Story: WR Josh Palmer excels in No. 2 role in a Los Angeles Chargers win
• The injury to Mike Williams leaves a massive hole in the Chargers offense. This should lead to plenty of opportunities for Josh Palmer, who has been among the game’s best separators this year, having generated the fourth-most separation of any wide receiver.
• But perhaps more important is that Palmer, with his 13.1-yard average target depth, is set to take over Williams' role as the deep threat. Against this porous Raiders secondary, he will have numerous chances at some huge plays that can elevate him to a ceiling game.
• The books are pricing in Palmer’s prop at his median production from last year (44.5), but he is entering a completely different role as the No. 2 target and downfield threat in a more prolific offense against a bad pass defense.
Build: +3700 on DraftKings
- WR Josh Palmer: 100+ receiving yards
- WR Josh Palmer: Touchdown scorer
- QB Justin Herbert: 300+ passing yards
- Los Angeles Chargers: -5
Story: Jacksonville Jaguars lean on WR Christian Kirk en route to a big passing day
• While it has been a slow start to the season for the Jags’ passing offense, there is still reason for optimism. Drops are notoriously noisy, and no team has dropped more passes than the Jaguars.
• Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is still second in the NFL in PFF grade and big-time throws, the kind of throws that often lead to ceiling games.
• And this might just be the right spot for the Jags in their home away from home, especially for Christian Kirk, who is set to face off against Dee Alford in the slot. Alford has allowed the eighth-most separation so far, and teams targeting him have produced the equivalent EPA of a traditional MVP season.
• Better yet, the Falcons play mostly zone coverage, where Kirk has earned a target on 28% of his snaps since coming to Jacksonville compared to 17% for WR Calvin Ridley and 20% for TE Evan Engram. With fellow receiver Zay Jones out, this should be a condensed target share with Kirk as the lead target in a terrific matchup.
PointsBet build: +4000
- WR Christian Kirk: 6+ catches
- WR Christian Kirk: 100+ receiving yards
- Jacksonville Jaguars: -3
- QB Trevor Lawrence: 300+ passing yards
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.