QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: Over 1.5 passing TDs: The Chicago Bears‘ pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The group ranks second-to-last in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback and 24th in success rate allowed on passing plays.
WR Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers: Over 4.5 receptions: We saw Keenan Allen shred the Vikings secondary to the tune of 18 catches in Week 3. While Thielen may not be a Keenan Allen-caliber player, he’s good enough to beat the Vikings corners enough to catch five passes in this game.
RB Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders: Under 13.5 longest rush: Game script could be an issue for Robinson. The Commanders are 8.5-point underdogs, which suggests that they’ll be throwing more often than running, limiting the amount of touches Robinson will get on the ground.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: Over 1.5 passing TDs (+110)
• The Chicago Bears‘ pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The group ranks second-to-last in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback and 24th in success rate allowed on passing plays. They also rank 25th in pressure rate and have only one sack on the year — a big thing, given Russell Wilson’s propensity for taking sacks.
• The Broncos offense has been better this year than in 2022. Sean Payton seems to have helped Russell Wilson, who ranks 10th at his position in PFF grade and is coming off a game in which he recorded four big-time throws and just one turnover-worthy play.
• The lack of defense from both teams, combined with a relatively high total (46.5 points), should lead to ample opportunities for Wilson to throw two touchdown passes in this game and cash this over.
WR Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers: Over 4.5 receptions (-113)
• Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young is expected to start against the Vikings in Week 4. And while he might actually be a downgrade from Andy Dalton at this point in his career, this should help Thielen get more targets in this game.
• The last time we saw Bryce Young, it was against the Saints' man-heavy coverage scheme, a game Thielen finished with nine targets and seven catches.
• This game against the Vikings should be similar, as no team has blitzed more than the Vikings this year, which means a lot of man coverage for Thielen.
• Thielen has 11 targets vs. man coverage this year, and no other player on the Panthers has more than four.
• We also saw Keenan Allen shred the Vikings secondary to the tune of 18 catches in Week 3. While Thielen may not be a Keenan Allen-caliber player, he’s good enough to beat the Vikings corners enough to catch five passes in this game.
RB Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders: Under 13.5 longest rush (-120)
• The Eagles' run defense has been stellar this season. They currently rank first in EPA allowed per rush and fifth in rushing success rate allowed.
• Under defensive coordinator Sean Desai, they’re also doing a tremendous job limiting explosive plays on the ground. They have allowed only two rushes of 10 or more yards this season, tied with the 49ers for the least among all defenses.
• Game script could also be an issue for Robinson. The Commanders are 8.5-point underdogs, which suggests that they’ll be throwing more often than running, limiting the amount of touches Robinson will get on the ground.
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