Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season was a test, with the Green Bay Packers +4 being our only bet from last week’s picks that covered (we do have a play on Monday Night Football).

The good news is that these picks continued to get great closing-line value (the line we bet in this article is better than the closing line with respect to the side we bet). We took the Washington Football Team +9.5, which closed +7, the New York Jets +11.5, which closed +10, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5, which at one point during the week was -1.5. Heck, even the Packers closed at +3.

Related: Why betting early is critical to beating NFL markets via Robert Greer

We are 6-7-1 on our written picks so far and 2-1 on our locks of the week, with the Monday Night Football game pending.

We’re on to Week 4, which has a number of intriguing options based on the early betting odds. All our initial reactions and guessing of the lines can be found on the PFF Forecast, which airs LIVE directly after Sunday Night Football and again on Wednesday evening. 

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Week 4 NFL Football Betting Odds (spread, total)

Thursday Night Football

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 45.5)

Sunday 1PM ET

Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets (+7.5, 46)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles (+5.5, 55)

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 50)

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-8.5, 43.5)

Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings (+1, 52.5)

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-3.5, 44)

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills (-17.5, 48)

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5, 43.5) 

Washington Football Team @ Atlanta Falcons (-1, 49)

Sunday 4PM ET

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 49)

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-6, 53.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers (-7, 48)

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos (-1.5, 45)

Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots (+5.5, 49)

Monday Night Football

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 53)

Week 4 NFL Best Bets to Grab Early

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles

Point (George Chahrouri): Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has made more turnover-worthy plays (passes that should be intercepted or bad fumbles) than big-time throws (PFF’s highest-graded throws). Expect some regression for Mahomes, who has had better than a 2-to-1 ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays in his NFL career.

The Chiefs are 0-3 against the spread this season, which is probably why this line is less than a touchdown. The Eagles will have less rest and are still a little inflated by a Week 1 victory over the hapless Falcons.