• Bet Brian Robinson to go over 6.5 receiving yards: Look for Robinson to be a check-down outlet for Sam Howell, who will be much more inclined to get the ball out quickly in a matchup against the Eagles.
• Bet Najee Harris to top 57.5 rushing yards: If there was ever a get-right spot where the Steelers' offensive line could get push up front and create yards before contact for Harris, this is it.
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Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
With Week 4 weather reports across the NFL very positive, we’re optimistic about a few player prop bet overs despite a lack of offensive production and scoring league-wide so far in 2023.
Here are our three favorite plays heading into the weekend, all of which can be found on DraftKings Sportsbook.
RB Brian Robinson over 6.5 receiving yards (-120)
Look to explore alternate receiving yardage overs here to get plus-money odds — as high as 10.5 yards if you can find it — because this is a line we like a lot for a number of reasons. Commanders quarterback Sam Howell took nine sacks against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3, and his 39.6% pressure-to-sack rate leads the NFL by a comfortable margin. Getting the ball out quickly has to be the main coaching point all week for offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy, and now the Commanders are set to face off against arguably the best defensive line in the league in the Philadelphia Eagles.
Through Week 3, the Eagles' defense has allowed 18 receptions on 20 targets to opposing running backs, ranking in the bottom five across the NFL in receptions allowed and completion percentage allowed on such targets. The Eagles' linebackers have been susceptible to short passes over the middle and in the flat. However, Philadelphia’s defense is also No. 1 in expected points allowed per rush through Week 3, so the run game is not going to be an answer here for the Commanders. Washington will have to manufacture quick throws to playmakers in space as a replacement of sorts for running the ball on early downs to stay ahead of the chains, and Robinson is one potential answer.
Robinson is not the best receiving back by any stretch, but he went over this number in the first two weeks on just one reception in Week 1 and two receptions for 42 yards in Week 2. He was not targeted in Week 3, but there is reason to believe that changes. Fellow Commanders running back Antonio Gibson is often used in this role, and odds are he still will be this weekend, but he fumbled the ball on a reception in Week 3 and had another fumble in Week 1. Turnovers are detrimental against any team, but especially if you give this Eagles offense a short field.
Look for Robinson to be a check-down outlet for Sam Howell, who will be much more inclined to get the ball out quickly in this matchup. We may need only one or two receptions to hit this yardage number.
WR Darnell Mooney longest reception over 16.5 yards (-110)
The Denver Broncos‘ defense ranks last in pressure rate (20.6%) and 31st in pass-rush win rate (29.4%) through three weeks, so Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields should have more time to operate in the pocket than he has in any game so far this season. On the flip side, the Bears' defense is also among the worst in the NFL at generating pressure and has an injury-decimated secondary that the Denver Broncos offense should be able to take plenty advantage of, with Denver’s offense performing much better than 2022 despite an 0-3 start of their own. This game has the makings of a high-scoring affair with plenty of downfield passing.
Mooney had four receptions for 53 yards, including a 23-yard touchdown reception, in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers but has been held without a catch since. However, Mooney injured his knee in Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and sat the majority of the second half, with just 15 total snaps played, showing up on the injury report as limited throughout the build-up to Week 3. Mooney was able to go in Week 3 but played only 36 snaps after a full 62 in Week 1. Ahead of Week 4, Mooney has not missed any practice time and is off the Bears' injury report.
Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II figures to see a lot of D.J. Moore this week, with Surtain playing almost exactly equal snaps on the left and right side through Week 3, illustrating his ability to travel against top receiving options. This leaves two of the lowest-graded cornerbacks in the NFL for Mooney to operate against. Broncos No. 2 outside cornerback Damarri Mathis has a 29.2 grade that ranks 101st out of 101 qualifying cornerbacks, and slot cornerback Essang Bassey’s 42.5 grade ranks 96th out of 101 qualifying cornerbacks. Last but certainly not least, Broncos safety Justin Simmons, one of the best ballhawks in the NFL, has been limited in practice throughout the week with a hip injury.
The combination of very little pressure from Denver’s pass rush and strong matchups for Mooney should lead to an explosive reception that gets us over the number here.
RB Najee Harris over 57.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Houston Texans have the worst run defense in the NFL through Week 3 in terms of EPA per rush allowed, and they are particularly susceptible between the tackles — where Najee Harris gets the majority of his work on inside zone and gap rushes. Houston’s interior unit ranks dead last in run-defense grade, with a 27.1 mark on the season. Houston’s linebacker unit also ranks 31st in run-defense grade and leads the NFL with eight missed tackles.
The game script is also a big component of this bet, though oddsmakers disagree with us here. While the Texans‘ offense and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud have been a pleasant surprise so far this season, Houston is down to third-string players at four of the five offensive line spots. No, you didn’t read that incorrectly: The Texans are expected to start third-stringers at both tackle spots, left guard and center.
C.J. Stroud has been exceptional to start his NFL career and looks to have an improved pocket presence against pressure, which he has faced at an insane rate already through three weeks. However, he ranks 35th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks in PFF passing grade when pressured. The Jaguars' pass rush was virtually non-existent in Week 3, with their 26.8% pressure rate ranking 31st in the NFL through Week 3. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, ranks eighth in pressure rate so far this season (38.6%).
The spread here of Steelers -2.5 or -3 certainly does not agree with our idea that this game could see a large Pittsburgh lead early, but that is largely because of the fact the Steelers' offense has been anemic so far this season. However, Pittsburgh faced two of the best defenses in the NFL out of the gate, with San Francisco and Cleveland absolutely smothering them, before showing signs of life against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Najee Harris averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in Week 3 and still surpassed this number with 65 rushing yards, and that was in a game with a one-score margin until midway through the third quarter. If there was ever a get-right spot where the Steelers' offensive line could get push up front and create yards before contact for Harris, this is it. And if the game script plays out as we expect it could, Harris figures to tote the rock plenty in the second half to bleed out the clock.
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