• RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: Henry has a favorable matchup against the Dallas rush defense, which ranks dead last in the NFL in EPA allowed per rush play and 30th in success rate allowed.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Henry has been a force in the red zone for years, and he’s started the season strong, scoring a rushing touchdown in each of his first two games.
Next up is a favorable matchup against the Dallas rush defense, which ranks dead last in the NFL in EPA allowed per rush play and 30th in success rate allowed.
Although the price is steep, the 48-point total and ideal matchup make it likely Henry will find the end zone again against Dallas.
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RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams offense has struggled to start this season, with injuries ravaging the offensive line and wide receiver corps.
Despite these setbacks, they’ve managed to put together some solid drives and now face a 49ers defense that ranks middle of the pack in most efficiency metrics.
Williams, who leads the team in red-zone touches, benefits from McVay’s long-standing reliance on running backs in close-range situations. At +115, his heavy involvement near the goal line offers too much value to overlook as a solid bet to score again for the Rams.
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RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
The Cardinals defense has consistently struggled to stop the run, ranking second-to-last in rushing success rate allowed and near the bottom in EPA allowed per rush over the past few seasons.
While the Lions offense has had its difficulties this season, much of that stems from red-zone struggles, where they’ve posted the fourth-lowest touchdown rate. However, this offense is too talented to sustain such a low level of red-zone success, and regression is likely.
When the Lions get inside the 5-yard line, Montgomery has been their go-to back, receiving 67% of the touches so far this season. With plus-money odds and a game featuring a high point total, expect the Lions to exploit the Cardinals' run defense and find the end zone through Montgomery.
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