• WR Jahan Dotson over 44.5 receiving yards: Dotson’s primary matchup will be Damarri Mathis, who had a rough outing last weekend, allowing eight catches on nine targets for a total of 95 yards.
• RB Derrick Henry over 86.5 rushing yards: The Chargers' run defense struggles have been well-documented since Brandon Staley took over as head coach. Since 2021, the Chargers have ranked 29th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and dead last in rushing success rate allowed.
• RB Bijan Robinson over 18.5 receiving yards: It was a little surprising to see Tyler Allgeier lead the team in rushing attempts last weekend, but Bijan was still the primary pass-catching back. He snagged six catches compared to Allgeier’s three and played 17 receiving snaps compared to Allgeier’s 11.
Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
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WR Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders: Over 44.5 receiving yards (-113)
The Broncos have arguably the best cornerback in the league in Patrick Surtain II, which might make a Dotson over seem unappealing. However, in Week 1, Surtain shadowed Davante Adams on 66% of his snaps, and we can expect him to continue shadowing WR1s this season. Luckily for Dotson, that means Terry McLaurin will see a lot of Surtain.
This means that Dotson’s primary matchup will be Damarri Mathis, who had a rough outing last weekend, allowing eight catches on nine targets for a total of 95 yards. His primary matchup, Jakobi Meyers, went for 81 yards and led the Raiders in receiving.
While Sam Howell also took six sacks last week, the Broncos defense registered a grand total of zero pressures when rushing four players. If that continues this week, Howell should have ample time in the pocket to find players like Dotson down the field.
RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: Over 86.5 rushing yards (-113)
The Chargers' run defense struggles have been well-documented since Brandon Staley took over as head coach. Since 2021, the Chargers have ranked 29th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and dead last in rushing success rate allowed.
This week, the Chargers will likely be down Eric Kendricks, their starting linebacker and green-dot player. Joey Bosa, L.A.'s best EDGE player, will also be questionable going into the game. Even if Bosa plays, he will probably be limited and not full-speed. This is important against a Titans offensive line that is one of the weakest overall units in the NFL.
Last year, Henry racked up 104 yards vs. the Chargers and averaged 5.0 yards per carry in that game alone. With the Chargers banged up and going on the road, this could be a good opportunity for Henry to bounce back after a tough Week 1 on the ground.
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110)
It was a little surprising to see Tyler Allgeier lead the team in rushing attempts last weekend, but Bijan was still the primary pass-catching back. He snagged six catches compared to Allgeier’s three and played 17 receiving snaps compared to Allgeier’s 11.
Head coach Arthur Smith did not ask Desmond Ridder to do very much against the Panthers. He finished last week with a 3.2-yard average depth of target, the lowest of any QB, and he targeted his running backs nine times, which accounted for over half of the team’s targets.
If the Falcons are playing from behind, Bijan could benefit from some Ridder checkdowns, which should help him go over his total.
The Packers allowed a total of 80 receiving yards to the Bears running backs last week. Quay Walker is questionable going into the game, and if he’s out, it would be a downgrade for the Packers' defense.
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