• Brock Purdy to surpass his yardage total: We saw Purdy against Flores’ defense last season, and the Vikings were able to force him into a few mistakes (two interceptions), but the Niners QB still averaged north of 9.0 yards per attempt.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown to come good: Like the 49ers, the Lions are one of the best offenses in the NFL at finding answers against the blitz, and St. Brown is often that answer. Todd Bowles’ Buccaneers defense has consistently ranked toward the top of the NFL in blitz rate, which should create opportunities for St. Brown on underneath option routes over the middle, where he and Jared Goff have developed strong chemistry.
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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
This offseason, we worked on developing”Key Insights,” a new data-driven tool that should help provide betting guidance throughout the year. Those insights look for strength-on-weakness matchups that could be meaningful through a player prop lens and should begin populating on PFF player pages as the season progresses.
To give a peak behind the curtain at the kind of information those insights provide, here are four of my favorite Week 2 player prop bets stemming from the first run of our Key Insights tool.
Note: We will use a weighted average of prior-season metrics for the first two weeks of the season, as there is little 2024 data to work with. The key insights will switch over to 2024 data in Week 3.
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