• Bet Miami Dolphins (-2) @ New England Patriots: Tua Tagovailoa has never lost to the Patriots and just carved up another man coverage-heavy defense.
• Bet Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons: The Packers' offense was masterful in Week 1 even without Christian Watson, whereas Desmond Ridder was the slate's lowest-graded winning quarterback.
• $200 in bonus bets guaranteed: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more get $200 in bonus bets. Click here to sign up!
Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
If you are betting on NFL spreads, you better do it early. After going over each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, we are here to share our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move.
Last year, we went 39-30-4. Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord here.
Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons
• Desmond Ridder posted the lowest Week 1 PFF passing grade of any winning quarterback.
• The Packers' offense was masterful even without Christian Watson (who has a good chance to be back in Week 2), racking up the fourth-highest expected points added per pass play figure in Week 1.
• Green Bay's offensive line earned the highest pass-blocking grade of any team this entire week and faces a middle-of-the-pack Falcons pass rush in Week 2, meaning quarterback Jordan Love and head coach Matt LaFleur should once again have their way.
GET ACCESS TO PFF PASS-BLOCKING GRADES USED BY ALL 32 NFL TEAMS. SUBSCRIBE NOW!
Miami Dolphins (-2) @ New England Patriots
• The Dolphins had one of the most electric offensive performances of any team this weekend. Tua Tagovailoa threw for more than 450 yards, with almost half of them going to Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins' offense, despite missing injured offensive tackle Terron Armstead, finished with an outstanding 0.64 expected points added per pass figure against the Chargers.
• They now face the Patriots, a team that Tua has never lost to as the starting quarterback and that is notorious for playing a lot of single-high coverages, such as Cover 1 and Cover 3. If there’s one thing a defense can’t do against the Dolphins, it’s leave their cornerbacks on islands in man coverage. Last year, Tua produced 0.16 EPA per pass against the Patriots, alongside a 50% success rate when dropping back.
• Mac Jones looked good against the Eagles' defense, and while the Dolphins' defense struggled, they’ll get an easier matchup against the Patriots across the board. Vic Fangio’s defense really struggled to stop the Chargers' run game, but the Patriots averaged -0.19 EPA per rush against the Eagles and could be without key offensive line starters again in Week 2.
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions
• The Seahawks simply cannot play any worse than they did in Week 1. The Rams demolished them up front on both sides of the ball. But the Lions don’t have Aaron Donald.
• Geno Smith is the higher-graded quarterback when you go back to last season, and he is getting more than three points here.
• The Lions were good against Kansas City in Week 1 but benefited from a multitude of dropped passes, including one that went for a pick-six. That regression hits and the Seahawks keep this one close.
Under 42.5 in Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
• The Browns' offense finished Week 1 ranked 19th in expected points added per play and the Steelers placed 26th, with their success rates ranking 13th and 25th, respectively. Granted, both teams went up against very good defenses and played in bad weather.
• However, the Browns' and Steelers' defensive lines should feast once again in this divisional Week 2 matchup. Pittsburgh’s pass-rush unit registered a 61.8% win rate in Week 1, which was good for third best across the NFL. Cleveland’s 50% mark was good for eighth best.
• Browns right tackle Jack Conklin went down with a knee injury that looks to be serious, and the Steelers could be without right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor and wide receiver Diontae Johnson. Cleveland's secondary was sticky in coverage all afternoon against Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the unit should blanket George Pickens and company in Week 2.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.