NFL Week 18 Matchup Angle: Bet on Baker Mayfield to continue his resurgence

Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.

While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.

Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle. 

Matchup Angle: Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield picks apart a Carolina Panthers defense that leads the NFL in coverage mistakes

• A 2022 PFF study titled The effect of perfectly covered plays on NFL offenses introduced the concept of perfect coverage. It looked at how even one coverage mistake can go a long way in determining the outcome of a play, as everyone locking down in coverage effectively eliminates the chance for success for an NFL offense.

• Despite performing far better as of late, the Carolina Panthers defense has been especially vulnerable to making coverage mistakes, as the team has posted the lowest rate of perfect coverage over the last two months of the season.

• However, because they've played mostly bottom-feeder offenses, their opponents have yet to take full advantage of this defensive weakness.

• Enter Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, who have been terrific at punishing defenses for making coverage mistakes. Mayfield has been right around league average when the defense creates perfect coverage but has been one of the league's best passers when the opposing defense makes a mistake. 

Bets to make: I’ll be betting on Mayfield to continue his resurgence and for the Buccaneers to score plenty through the air, even against a weak Panthers rush defense.