• QB Jared Goff 250+ passing yards & Detroit Lions -6.5: If we account for the full season but weigh recent weeks more heavily, we can see that the Lions are far superior on offense but have struggled on defense. Meanwhile, the Vikings are right about average on both sides of the ball.
• Goff should be able to take full advantage of the Vikings' pass rush: Jared Goff and the Lions have produced one of the more drastic splits in the NFL when it comes to passing with and without pressure. The team falls around league average when Goff is pressured but has generated the fourth most expected points added (EPA) when pressure doesn't materialize. And Goff should face little pressure against a weak Vikings pass rush, allowing the Lions to excel on offense — as they have all season.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”
However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.
Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.
QB Jared Goff 250+ passing yards & Detroit Lions -6.5 (+650)
• First, let's establish the base expectations by looking at how well the Lions have “earned points” by sustainably moving the ball on offense and preventing opponents from doing the same (EDP).
• If we account for the full season but weigh recent weeks more heavily, we can see that the Lions are far superior on offense but have struggled on defense. Meanwhile, the Vikings are right about average on both sides of the ball.
• However, the Lions have been the drivers of play and consistently outperformed their opponents' (rolling) defense averages. They have scored 0.6 points more points per drive on average than their opponents had been letting up coming into this game.
• Detroit has been more or less matchup-agnostic all season, while the Vikings' defense has allowed each of its last three opponents to perform better than their offense averages coming into the game.
• Since Kirk Cousins went down in Week 8, Minnesota has consistently underperformed in their matchups, moving the ball 0.33 points less than the opposing defenses had been allowing.
• Both charts taken together would suggest that the Lions offense is the dispositive unit in this game and neutralizes the Vikings defense, while the Vikings offense has been incapable of taking advantage of good matchups, negating the effect of how bad the Lions defense has performed of late.
Matchup Angle
• Despite blitzing a league-high 55% of the time, the Vikings have struggled to generate pressure all season, posting the fourth-lowest pressure rate and seventh-lowest quick-pressure rate.
• Meanwhile, Jared Goff and the Lions have produced one of the more drastic splits in the NFL when it comes to passing with and without pressure. The team falls around league average when Goff doesn't face pressure but has generated the fourth most expected points added (EPA) when pressure doesn't materialize.
•Jared Goff should face little pressure against a weak Vikings pass rush, allowing the Lions to excel on offense — as they have all season.
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