NFL Week 18 Betting: Midweek market update

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article. Lookahead lines were not available ahead of this week, given the uncertainty in motivation teams would have in their season finales after Week 17's results.

Click here to jump to a game:

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	BAL -17.5	BAL -17.5
Total	41.5	42

Spread: The Ravens opened as 17.5-point favorites, still motivated to secure the division with a win. A few books have moved this to 18, reflecting the Browns’ ongoing struggles to generate offense since turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. With limited production from Cleveland, this number could climb higher.

Total: The total has remained relatively steady, with the market split between 41.5 and 42.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the Ravens at -17.5. Baltimore’s offensive firepower should prove too much for this version of the Browns' offense to keep pace.

Situational Factors: The Ravens hold a rest advantage, having played on Christmas Day.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	CIN -2.5	CIN -2
Total	47.5	48.5

Spread: The Bengals must win to keep their playoff hopes alive. While the Steelers might not be eligible for the division title by kickoff, they still have seeding to fight for, potentially impacting whether they travel to Houston or Baltimore. This spread briefly touched 3 before dropping to 2 after Mike Tomlin confirmed he won’t rest his starters. If the Ravens secure the division and the line moves back to 3, I’d lean toward taking Pittsburgh at home with the points.

Total: The total has risen by a point to 48.5, with some books still holding at 48. The upward adjustment reflects the high-scoring nature of their Week 13 matchup, where the teams combined for 82 points.

Situational Factors: The Steelers enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on Christmas Day.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	BUF -2	BUF -2.5
Total	40	38

Spread: With the Bills locked into the No. 2 seed, we’re likely to see starters rest, including quarterback Josh Allen, who might only take a snap to preserve his games-started streak. Similarly, the Patriots, who hold the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, may limit their own key players, with rumors suggesting Joe Milton could see action at quarterback. Neither team has much incentive to win, but New England has a clear incentive to lose. The market is split between 2.5 and 3 points, but laying the 2.5 with the Bills seems more favorable than taking points with the Patriots.

Total: A pick release on the under has moved the total from 40 to 38, with no additional movement since.

Buy/Sell: Locking in a parlay of the Bills moneyline and the under 38.5 at +195 on FanDuel. If “first game to finish” during the 1:00 p.m. slate were an option, it would be tempting. Expect both teams to lean on the run game, with the Bills getting a win in a quick, low-scoring matchup.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PHI -3	PHI -3
Total	38	38

Spread: The Eagles opened as 3-point favorites and have remained at that number across the board. With Philadelphia locked into the No. 2 seed regardless of the outcome, the extent to which their starters will play is uncertain.

Total: The total has seen minimal movement, holding steady at 38.5 at several books.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	ATL -7.5	ATL -8
Total	47.5	48

Spread: Atlanta's odds have ticked up slightly from the opening line of -7.5, with some books now listing the Falcons at -8.5 or even -9. The increase reflects their still-slim chance of capturing the NFC South.

Total: The total has remained steady, with most books split between 47.5 and 48 after opening at 47.5. There hasn’t been significant movement here.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	TB -14	TB -13
Total	43.5	43.5

Spread: The Buccaneers opened as two-touchdown favorites with the division within reach, but the line dropped to 13 on Monday afternoon. Some books still list 13.5 for the Saints. While there’s an outside chance Derek Carr could play, the market’s current line suggests skepticism about his availability.

Total: The total has stayed close to the opening 43.5, with a few books offering 44.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	GB -7.5	GB -9
Total	40	40

Spread: Green Bay has shifted to a 9-point favorite after opening slightly above a touchdown. Some books offer 9.5, but the line has yet to settle at 10. It’s likely to close just below that key number.

Total: The total has fluctuated between 39.5 and 40, with a few books now moving to 40.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	IND -5	IND -5
Total	44	46

Spread: The market consensus is holding at 5, with only minor deviations of half a point in either direction. Neither team has postseason hopes remaining.

Total: The total has risen by two points from its opening at 46. The Colts have been involved in high-scoring affairs recently, hitting the over in their last four games and six of their past seven. Some books still have 45.5 available.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	TEN -3.5	PK
Total	36.5	39

Spread: The Texans, locked into the No. 4 seed, opened as 3.5-point underdogs to the Titans. While head coach DeMeco Ryans suggested starters would play, he left room for them to be pulled during the game. This uncertainty has moved the line to a pick’em, though some books still have Tennessee as a slight favorite. This dynamic creates intriguing betting angles, such as Texans 1H and Titans full game, assuming Houston’s starters won’t play the entire contest.

Total: A notable increase in the total aligns with the expectation that Texans starters will see the field for part of the game. However, some 38.5s remain available.

Situational Factors: The Texans have a rest advantage, having played on Christmas Day.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	WAS -1.5	WAS -4.5
Total	43	44

Spread: Speculation about how Dallas will divide playing time, including potential snaps for Trey Lance at quarterback, has influenced this line. With Washington needing a win to secure the No. 6 seed, the Commanders have moved to 4.5-point favorites across all books.

Total: A slight uptick in the total has taken it from 43 to 44, with resistance showing at 44.5.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PK	AZ 4
Total	46	42.5

Spread: The Cardinals have seen significant movement in their favor after the 49ers announced Brock Purdy would be shut down for the season. Josh Dobbs is set to start in his place. The market is split, with some books at 4.5 while others lag at 3.5.

Total: The total has dropped in response to the Purdy news, now sitting at 42.5 across all books.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	SEA -2.5	SEA -5.5
Total	39.5	38.5

Spread: Following Sean McVay's announcement that he plans to rest starters, the Seahawks have moved to a 5-point favorite as of Tuesday afternoon. Despite this, the Rams still have something to play for, as a win would secure the NFC’s three-seed.

Total: The total has dropped a point from its opening at 39.5, though no book has yet moved it down to 38.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the Rams at +5.5, given their remaining incentive to compete and Jimmy Garoppolo under center.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	MIA -2.5	MIA -1
Total	41.5	39

Spread: Concerns around Tua Tagovailoa's hip persist after he missed Week 17, leading to skepticism about his availability for Sunday. As a result, the Dolphins have slid to a 1-point favorite. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers remains on track to start for the Jets. Miami must win and receive outside help to make the playoffs, with their chances currently sitting at around 10%.

Total: The total has dropped 2.5 points, reflecting uncertainty over Tua’s status. A few books still have this at 39.5.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	LAC -3.5	LAC -6
Total	39	41

Spread: The Chargers still have some seeding to play for, and we’ve seen them grow to a 6-point favorite. There are still 5.5s out there.

Total: One-way action on the over has pushed this total up from 39 to 41. Some 41.5s are appearing, and we haven’t yet seen much resistance to knock this number down.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	DEN -8.5	DEN -10
Total	38	39

Spread: Win, and you’re in for the Broncos this week. These types of must-win scenarios can lead to artificially inflated lines. At first glance, this seems to be one of those opportunities, but it’s mostly in reaction to the Chiefs' starters resting. A loss here would also prevent another “Burrowhead” situation from returning, icing the Bengals out of the playoffs. We’ve seen this spread reach 10.5, but at that point, we saw some support for the Chiefs.

Total: One point adjustment up on the total has the market currently split between 38.5 and 39.

Situational Factors: The Chiefs have a rest advantage, having played on Christmas Day.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	DET -3	DET -3
Total	51	56

Spread: This one’s for all the marbles in the NFC North. The winner takes the division and secures home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. We’ve seen some movement back and forth between 2.5 and 3 in this matchup. That should be exactly where it closes.

Total: The initial opener here was 51 and was bet up to 53 on Sunday night. After the Lions' explosion for 40 points on MNF, this re-opened at 55.5. From there, it got bet up to 57 but has since dropped back to 56. There are still some 57s out there.