NFL Week 17 Matchup Angle: Bet on Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott to continue carving up man coverage

Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.

While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.

Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle. 

Matchup angle: Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott continues to carve up man coverage fronts

• The market is already pricing in a premium for the Cowboys offense, given how much the Lions defense has struggled. But even still, there is room to make the case that the market is still not properly considering the upside of this Cowboys offense.

• Over the last six games, the Lions have started to play far more man coverage, lining up in man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. According to a 2022 study at PFF, man coverage tends to produce a true reflection of the talent on the field, as the better player will come out on top more often than not, whether that be the wide receiver or cornerback.

• For the Lions, Brian Branch has been absolutely dominant in man coverage this season, while Cam Sutton, Jerry Jacobs and Khalil Dhorsey have struggled immensely.

• But with Branch in the slot, he is still at a matchup disadvantage facing CeeDee Lamb, who has been one of the more dominant receivers in man coverage and should mitigate the Lions' best weapon defending man coverage.

• The Cowboys have been the most productive offense in the NFL against man coverage — by a decently wide margin. And this is not simply a one-year feature for Dak Prescott, as his offenses have continually been at the very top of the league against man coverages.

Bets to make: I’ll be betting the overs for Prescott passing props, Cowboys team total over and building in some same-game parlays of the Cowboys offense exploding.