• RB D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles: The Cardinals defense is the worst defense in the league when it comes to defending plays inside the 10-yard line, the prime area for running backs to punch in touchdowns.
• RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals: Only Christian McCaffrey and Raheem Mostert have taken more carries inside the opponents' 10-yard line than Joe Mixon, who has gotten 97% of the Bengals' rush opportunities and 30 carries in goal-to-go opportunities.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
RB D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
• Swift has been tackled on the 1-yard line a league-leading six times this season, and quarterback Jalen Hurts has followed every one of those plays with a rushing touchdown.
• There is little signal in being tackled exactly on the 1-yard line. We should expect to see some regression going forward, whereby Swift ends up in the end zone at a higher rate.
• Swift being often tackled at the 1 has depressed pricing such that we can bet on him to score at plus-money in a terrific matchup against the Cardinals' run defense. The Cardinals defense is the worst defense in the league when it comes to defending plays inside the 10-yard line, the prime area for running backs to punch in touchdowns.
• The Cardinals rank fourth-worst in expected points added (EPA) allowed per run play and second-worst in rushing success rate allowed. Swift has handled 86% of the running back snaps from within the 10-yard line, and in a terrific matchup with the Eagles implied for 30 points, look for him to find the endzone at plus-money.
RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
•Only Christian McCaffrey and Raheem Mostert have taken more carries inside the opponents' 10-yard line than Joe Mixon, who has gotten 97% of the Bengals' rush opportunities and 30 carries in goal-to-go opportunities.
• Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs have struggled to defend the run all season, having given up the fifth-most yards per carry, the second-worst rushing success rate and the ninth-most EPA per run play.
• Always a threat to score as a receiver in close, too, Mixon looks like a terrific bet in an up-tempo game against a defense struggling to defend the run.
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