• Calvin Ridley set for a big game? Calvin Ridley has enjoyed a lot of success deep down the field and boasts one of the league's higher average target depths entering Week 16. He also possesses one of the best separation grades in the NFL. With Christian Kirk out for the year and Zay Jones set to miss this game, Ridley should see all the targets he can handle in this matchup.
• Tyreek Hill to explode against the Dallas Cowboys’ man-coverage unit? Against a Cowboys defense that doesn't have one cornerback who is even above average when it comes to preventing separation in man coverage, Hill will have a massive matchup advantage and should see plenty of targets as a result.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Story: Indianapolis Colts QB Gardner Minshew carves up the pass-funnel Atlanta Falcons
• The Colts have a Week 16 matchup with a pass-funnel Falcons team that is far easier to pass against than run against.
• The Falcons defense ranks 32nd in the league in quick-pressure rate entering Week 16, which should give Gardner Minshew time to work through his progressions and hit his targets.
• Minshew should still be able to perform even if the Colts need to become one-dimensional, as he ranks seventh at his position in expected points added (EPA) in obvious passing situations this season.
• He should also be dropping back to pass often, as the Colts have turned into a very pass-heavy team in recent weeks, with the team relying on Minshew to generate offense. Should the Colts win, it will likely be on the back of Minshew in a favorable spot.
PointsBet SGP Build: 50-1
- QB Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts: 300+ passing yards
- Indianapolis Colts: -5.5
Story: Calvin Ridley shines as the Jacksonville Jaguars’ primary target
• No team has allowed more yards to wide receivers than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have surrendered 210 yards per game to the position this season.
• Part of the reason has been a failure to prevent explosive plays on defense, as the team has allowed the third-most explosive pass plays of 15 or more yards this season.
• Calvin Ridley has enjoyed a lot of success deep down the field and boasts one of the league's higher average target depths entering Week 16. He also possesses one of the best separation grades in the NFL.
• With Christian Kirk out for the year and Zay Jones set to miss this game, Ridley should see all the targets he can handle in this matchup.
FanDuel SGP Build:
- WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars: 110+ receiving yards
- WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars: 6+ catches
- QB Trevor Lawrence: Over 253.5 passing yards
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill explodes against the Dallas Cowboys’ man-coverage unit
• As we discussed in our matchups column, no team has played more man coverage than the Dallas Cowboys, who have done so on nearly half of their defensive plays this season.
• According to a 2022 study at PFF, man coverage tends to produce a true reflection of the talent on the field, as the better player will come out on top more often than not, whether that be the wide receiver or cornerback.
• Tyreek Hill has arguably been the NFL's best wide receiver against man coverage this season, as he leads the NFL in yards per route run and is not far behind in terms of separation.
• Against a Cowboys defense that doesn't have one cornerback who is even above average when it comes to preventing separation in man coverage, Hill will have a massive matchup advantage and should see plenty of targets as a result.
PointsBet SGP Build: 35-1
- QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 325+ passing yards
- WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins: 155+ receiving Yards
- Miami Dolphins: Moneyline
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