NFL Week 16 Leveraging Tails: Back QB Jake Browning and the Bengals to take down the Steelers

• QB Jake Browning 300+ passing yards & Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 (+1200): The Steelers defense has struggled to prevent explosive plays of 15-plus yards. They have given up the fourth-highest explosive pass rate this season, with the number only creeping up in recent weeks.

• Browning enjoying success throwing deep: This just so happens to be an area where Browning and the Bengals have excelled, even though they haven't thrown deep particularly often. Perhaps a matchup with the Steelers will further push the Bengals to throw downfield, reinforcing the present matchup advantage. 

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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes

Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”

However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.

Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.

Week 16 leveraging tails bets

• Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (+190)

• QB Jake Browning 300+passing yards & Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 (+1200)

• The above graph shows how well the teams have moved and prevented opponents from moving the ball, with recent performances weighted more heavily.

• The data suggests that there is a big gap between the Bengals' and Steelers' offenses, with the Bengals holding the advantage. A similar gap emerges on the defensive side of the ball, though it's the Steelers who come out on top.

• Assuming that the teams will meet somewhere in the middle and that the units cancel each other out would be unwise. Since backup quarterback Jake Browning took over the reins in Cincinnati, the Bengals have outperformed their opponents' rolling defensive EDP margin by 0.3 points. In essence, this would move the Steelers' defensive output into the cluster that contains the Colts, Chargers, Texans and Rams.

• The Steelers, on the other hand, have underperformed on offense in this same metric, greatly benefiting the Bengals defense. 

• There are underlying schematic reasons for the Steelers' offensive struggles, which appear to be sticky and matchup-agnostic. The team is failing to create coverage mistakes, with opponents managing to play perfect coverage against them a league-high 47% of the time. 

• The Steelers are also throwing into tight coverage 21% of the time, also tied for the worst rate in the NFL, suggesting a schematic issue whereby the team cannot generate any separation or scheme open receivers.

Matchup Angle

The Steelers defense has struggled to prevent explosive plays of 15-plus yards. They have given up the fourth-highest explosive pass rate this season, with the number only creeping up in recent weeks. 

• This just so happens to be an area where Browning and the Bengals have excelled, even though they haven't thrown deep particularly often. Perhaps a matchup with the Steelers will further push the Bengals to throw downfield, reinforcing the present matchup advantage. 

• Further, the Steelers run defense has been mediocre as a whole in 2023, but in games when run-stuffing interior defender Cameron Heyward has been healthy enough to suit up, the Steelers have the third-best rush success rate allowed and are in the top quartile in yards allowed per carry and expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush.

• This should further push the Bengals to the pass, and they should enjoy success against a unit that is bleeding explosive plays and ranks in the bottom three in pressure rate over the last month.