NFL Week 16 Betting Notebook

I’ve been putting together notes for every game that Judah Fortgang and I touch on during the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show each week, and I’ve since extended that to game-by-game betting notes for the full slate of Sunday games.

The idea is to put my research and thoughts onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to help myself work through what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully, you’re able to get similar value from this article as you work through your decision-making process.

Each game will include data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball with an “Angles I Like” summary at the end, which quickly summarizes how I’m most likely to bet the game from a spreads, totals and player props perspective.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (CIN -8.5, 46.5 TOTAL)

Dorian Thompson-Robinson is getting the start vs. the Bengals, and the first game vs. Cincinnati happens to be the only other game where he saw significant action (in relief for injured Deshaun Watson)
- DTR in that game: 33.0 PFF passing grade, 11 / 24, 82 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT … he did have 3 designed runs for 44 yards (one of which was a kneel)
- In a larger sample in 2023 (123 dropbacks), DTR also really struggled to get anything going as a passer
  - 0 big-time throws to 6 turnover-worthy plays
  - 54% completion rating, 3.9 YPA, 51.2 passer rating
  - He also didn’t add much on the ground (14 carries for 65 yards)
This is a backup quarterback coming in with a passing-yardage line around 200 against a weak Bengals defense, but if anything, I side with the under on Thompson-Robinson’s passing yardage prop. I think we have enough of a sample to not want to chase the “unknown commodity” upside.
- This trickles down to Jerry Jeudy, too, who had a lot of success with Jameis Winston at quarterback, but I would lean toward his under at 63.5 yards this week.