• Bet on the Rams (-4) to ride Matthew Stafford's hot arm against Saints: Matthew Stafford‘s 21.3% big-time throw rate, 12.0 yards per attempt and six touchdowns on passes targeted 10-plus yards downfield since Week 12 are all top-five marks among quarterbacks.
• Bet on the Bills (over 28.5 team total) to light up the Chargers: The Bills' offense beat up on the Cowboys' defense in Week 15, running for more than 200 yards and scoring 31 points.
• Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day. Join FanDuel today!
Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
If you are betting on NFL spreads, it's best to do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, we are here to share our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move.
We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 24-22 (+0.9 units) this season.
Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord.
If you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.
Los Angeles Rams (-4) vs. New Orleans Saints
• Matthew Stafford has been pushing the ball downfield as well as any quarterback in the NFL over the past month, with his 21.3% big-time throw rate, 12.0 yards per attempt and six touchdowns on passes targeted 10-plus yards downfield since Week 12 all ranking as top-five marks among quarterbacks. The Rams have a legitimate trench advantage in this game on offense, as the Saints rank 23rd in pass-rush win rate, allowing Stafford to attack downfield.
• The Rams' rushing attack since Kyren Williams‘ Week 12 return also places sixth in expected points added per rush and ninth in success rate, with their forced missed tackles per attempt, yards after contact per attempt and explosive rush rate all ranking in the top five. The Saints' offense was without arguably its two best players in Week 15 — wide receiver Chris Olave and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk — and Michael Thomas was already out for an extended period. The short turnaround to Thursday night may keep them out once more.
• Rams head coach Sean McVay game-planning on a short week versus Dennis Allen is a matchup we like more than any on the field.
Buffalo Bills (OVER 28.5 Total Points) @ Los Angeles Chargers
• Aidan O'Connell and company lit up the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football to the tune of 49 offensive points, which ultimately led to the firing of head coach Brandon Staley. Structurally, the Chargers' defense and personnel should be the same, which should play in the Bills' favor. On the season, the Chargers' defense ranks 27th in expected points allowed per play and 29th in success rate allowed.
• The Bills' offense beat up on the Cowboys' defense in Week 15, running for more than 200 yards and scoring 31 points. Having that type of balance to take some of the weight off Josh Allen’s shoulders should be very helpful for the rest of this season. Even though they beat the Cowboys simply by running the ball, the Bills' previous games have shown they can win by passing, which is the easiest way to move the ball on the Chargers' defense.
• Even though Los Angeles will have the rest factor on its side, this should be a game where the stadium is packed with Bills fans as the team continues on its playoff push. Meanwhile, Chargers fans are looking for a top-five draft pick. Based on what we saw in their game against the Raiders, there is a chance that the Chargers gift the Bills a defensive touchdown to help them go over this total.
Indianapolis Colts (-2) @ Atlanta Falcons
• The Indianapolis Colts get zero respect in the betting market. They are 9-5 against the spread this season and have yet to close as more than a 2.5-point favorite.
• Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder has a 53.2 PFF passing grade, which ranks above only Bryce Young and Mac Jones.
• The Colts' interior defensive line has been extremely strong with DeForest Buckner and his fourth-ranked 87.6 pass-rush grade going up against a Falcons interior that does not have a single player with better than a 65.0 PFF grade.
• To top it all off, the Colts' Shane Steichen has been one of the best coaches in the NFL this season, both schematically and in key situations. The matchup against Arthur Smith will tilt strongly in his favor.
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