• RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills: Since Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator in Week 11, the Bills have fielded one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league, running far more than expected and leaning on James Cook in the ground game.
• RB Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins: Even though he leads the NFL in touchdowns, Mostert's anytime TD pricing sits near even money. And as we saw last week with James Cook’s explosive running day, the Cowboys are very susceptible on the ground, having allowed the highest rushing success rate against opposing running backs.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills
• Since Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator in Week 11, the Bills have fielded one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league, running far more than expected and leaning on James Cook in the ground game.
• Cook has an excellent matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks in the bottom quartile in rush success rate allowed and expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush.
• With the newfound ground game and an implied total north of 28, look for the Bills to feed Cook in this Saturday night showdown.
RB Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
• Even though he leads the NFL in touchdowns, Mostert's anytime TD pricing sits near even money. And as we saw last week with James Cook’s explosive running day, the Cowboys are very susceptible on the ground, having allowed the highest rushing success rate against opposing running backs.
• Teams have run nearly 7% more than expected from inside the 10-yard line against Dallas. Mostert — even since De'Von Achane returned from injury — ranks second in the NFL in carries inside the 10, leaving him plenty of opportunity to punch it in.
• In a game with a 50-point total that should feature lots of scoring, look for the Dolphins to continue turning to their Mr. Reliable.
WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Mike Evans has dominated targets in the red zone for the Buccaneers, accounting for close to 30% of the team's targets from within close. The veteran wideout is not just a threat to score from within close, though, as he is also atop the league in touchdowns from passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.
• Evans has a matchup with a Jaguars team that is down its top corner in Tyson Campbell and already ranks 26th in the NFL in touchdowns per game allowed to wide receivers.
• With the Bucs offense firing on all cylinders in recent weeks, look for QB Baker Mayfield to continue to rely on Evans, especially from within close, giving him a chance to take over the league lead in touchdowns.
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