• QB Jordan Love 300+ passing yards & Green Bay Packers -4.5: The Green Bay Packers have far outpaced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on both sides of the ball. Entering Week 15, the Packers offense sits in the 65th percentile in earned drive points (EDP), while the Buccaneers offense sits in the 22nd percentile.
• An opportunity to open it up: Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love has the fourth-highest average target depth in the NFL, and the Bucs have given up explosive plays at the third-worst rate among defenses, further elevating this spot for the Packers.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”
However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.
Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.
QB Jordan Love 300+ passing yards & Green Bay Packers -4.5 (+850)
• The Green Bay Packers have far outpaced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on both sides of the ball this season. Entering Week 15, the Packers offense sits in the 65th percentile in earned drive points (EDP), while the Buccaneers offense sits in the 22nd percentile. The Packers defense is in the 55th percentile in EDP, while the Buccaneers defense is in the 35th.
• The Packers offense has continued to excel over the last six weeks, whereas the Bucs offense (while improving) remains a below-average unit. There is a large gap between these two teams.
Matchup Angles
• The Packers have struggled against the run of late, failing to stop drives primarily consisting of running plays.
• On drives where opposing offenses have run over expected, the Packers rank 28th among defenses at stopping the run.
• That angle is slightly mitigated against the Buccaneers, as Tampa Bay sit in the 10th percentile in EDP on run drives. The Bucs have struggled to generate sustained success on the ground, ranking 30th in the league in rushing success rate.
• Meanwhile, the Packers' offensive success has coincided with their recent turn to the passing attack.
• Over the last couple of months, the Packers have started to pass over expected more and more, and their passing efficiency has only increased.
• This is especially relevant against the Bucs, as it has been far easier to pass against them than to run against them. They have the fifth-biggest discrepancy in expected points added (EPA) allowed per pass and EPA allowed per rush.
• Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love has the fourth-highest average target depth in the NFL, and the Bucs have given up explosive plays at the third-worst rate among defenses, further elevating this spot for the Packers.
The Bottom line: Considering the matchup, we know the Packers will throw the ball. And if they are to have success in this game, it will almost certainly be on the back of Love and the passing game in a matchup that plays to the Packers' style and strengths.
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