NFL Week 15 Betting Notebook

I’ve been putting together notes for every game that Judah Fortgang and I touch on during the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show each week, and I’ve since extended that to game-by-game betting notes for the full slate of Sunday games.

The idea is to put my research and thoughts onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to help myself work through what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully, you’re able to get similar value from this article as you work through your decision-making process.

Each game will include data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball with an “Angles I Like” summary at the end, which quickly summarizes how I’m most likely to bet the game from a spreads, totals and player props perspective.

Jump to a game:

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (WAS -7.5, 43.5 TOTAL)

• The Commanders' offense got the train back on the tracks in their last game before a bye against the Titans.

- In three losses prior to Week 13, Washington ranked just 26th in EPA per play, a notable drop-off from the first nine weeks of the season (first in EPA per play).

• This is another matchup where they should have success against a Saints defense that has allowed 5.6 yards per play this season (second most in NFL).

- The Saints have tightened the screws once teams get into the red zone (49% touchdown drive rate allowed in red zone, eighth lowest), helping them rank in the top half of the NFL in points allowed per game despite offenses being able to consistently move the ball against them.