• Bet on Gardner Minshew, Josh Downs and the Colts: The Cincinnati Bengals have been absolutely dreadful at preventing explosive plays and rank dead last in the NFL in explosive play rate allowed through 13 weeks.
• Bet on C.J. Stroud to get the better of the Jets defense: Stroud’s ability to extend plays and scramble should help mitigate the Jets' defensive matchup advantages, allowing us to benefit from the depressed pricing.
• $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day. Join FanDuel today!
Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Wide receiver Josh Downs beats the Cincinnati Bengals for some explosive plays en route to an Indianapolis Colts win
• The Cincinnati Bengals have been absolutely dreadful at preventing explosive plays and rank dead last in the NFL in explosive play rate allowed through 13 weeks.
• While Michael Pittman Jr. has been an excellent possession receiver for the Colts, he is not the team's go-to deep threat, as he is last among Colts receivers in receiving grade on 20-plus-yard targets and his after-the-catch ability remains limited.
• Josh Downs leads the team in both separation rate and yards after the catch on those deep looks, which gives him multiple avenues to break a big play and expose Cincinnati where they are weakest.
• If Downs breaks out for some big plays, Minshew should fly well over his prop in a game the Colts should win.
PointsBet SGP Build: 45-1
- WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts: 95+ receiving yards
- QB Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts: 275+ passing yards
- Indianapolis Colts: Moneyline
Los Angeles Rams lean on wide receiver Cooper Kupp and the passing game and secure the win vs. the Baltimore Ravens
• It might seem as though Cooper Kupp has lost a step and is bothered by injuries. After all, his production has certainly stalled over the last few weeks.
• However, that does not mean we should overlook the underlying numbers, which still show Kupp as a terrific separator. And though we may not have seen it in a while, he is still dynamic after the catch.
• The Ravens defense has been terrific, and there is reported bad weather, so the props for Kupp, Stafford and the Rams are at the lowest we’ve seen (and likely will see) all season.
• The Rams will likely be the toughest passing offense the Ravens have faced, and the team has relied on dominant play from safety and frequent slot cornerback Kyle Hamilton, who has not faced a receiver with Kupp’s abilities.
DraftKings SGP Build: 325-1
- QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 275+ passing yards
- RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams: Under 70.5 rushing yards
- WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams: 5+ receptions & 110+ receiving yards
- Los Angeles Rams: -3
Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud relies on wide receiver Noah Brown in Tank Dell’s absence
• Tank Dell’s recent devastating leg injury has left plenty of opportunity for the Texans' other wide receivers. This is where Noah Brown figures to step up.
• Brown, the 27-year-old receiver, is enjoying a breakout season for the Texans. He is separating well above average and has a top-five grade at the catch point and after the catch. Life is good with Stroud at quarterback.
• Brown, who runs more than half of his routes from the slot, happens to have the best matchup of the Texans receivers, given that he'll be avoiding Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, top-10 cornerbacks in PFF grade.
• Stroud’s ability to extend plays and scramble should help to mitigate the Jets' defensive matchup advantages, allowing us to benefit from the depressed pricing.
PointsBet SGP Build: 50-1
- WR Noah Brown, Houston Texans: 95+ receiving yards
- WR Noah Brown, Houston Texans: Anytime touchdown
- QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 275+ passing yards
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.