• Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions: Should one team jump ahead, bet on the underdog to come back at the 10.5-point spread and even sprinkle on the underdog moneyline deep in plus money.
• Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers: If the Dolphins play zone coverage, bet on Austin Ekeler to go over his reception total and Mike Williams to go under his reception and receiving yards totals.
• New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals: If the teams play conservatively and get off to a slow start, look to bet the over as each team gets more aggressive and begins to put points on the board.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
Last updated: Friday, Dec. 9, 10:00 pm ET
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
High-powered offenses create volatility ripe for live betting: When there is volatility, there are big price swings, and one can often — especially when planning in advance — book a middle (both sides of a bet cashing) or at the very least get both sides of a bet at plus money for a guaranteed profit.
The Lions have scored a touchdown on close to 30% of their drives, the third-best rate in the NFL. They rank seventh among NFL offenses in expected points added (EPA) per play.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings carry a robust 26 implied points against a Lions defense that ranks 32nd among NFL defenses in EPA allowed per play and 30th in yards allowed per play.
Aside from high expected offensive outputs, both teams have struggled when they have had to protect a lead. The Vikings are perhaps the league's worst team holding leads — a trend that has persisted through each of Kirk Cousins‘ five seasons in Minnesota. The Lions are league-average when holding a big lead despite ranking in the top 10 in EPA in all other situations.
Live-betting game plan: Should one team jump ahead, bet on the underdog to come back at the 10.5-point spread and even sprinkle on the underdog moneyline deep in plus money.
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Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers
Miami has generally played man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, but they have been inconsistent in how they’ve deployed their coverage on a week-to-week basis.
The good news for us bettors is that this is an island game, so there is an opportunity for us to pay attention to see whether the Dolphins are playing man or zone.
Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler has been a target monster against zone coverage, generating a target on 30% of his routes, whereas wide receiver Mike Williams has rarely been targeted on zone looks.
However, it has been a totally different story against man coverage, with Williams targeted on 34% of routes compared to 15% for Ekeler.
Live-betting game plan: If the Dolphins play zone coverage, bet on Ekeler to go over his reception total and Williams to go under his reception and receiving yards totals.
If they are playing man, bet the under on Ekeler's reception total and the over on Williams' reception and receiving yards totals.
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New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
New England and Arizona have struggled to get off to hot starts and are much better off-script than on-script. In fact, both teams are nearly 0.5 points better off-script than on.
Early in games, the Cardinals and Patriots rank among the bottom-five offenses in terms of average depth of target: Over the first 15 plays of a game, the Patriots and Cardinals throw about 1.5 yards shorter than they do after the first 15 plays.
Simply put, both of these teams tend to get more aggressive as the game goes on, creating a better environment for scoring points.
Live-betting game plan: If the teams play conservatively and get off to a slow start, look to bet the over as each team gets more aggressive and begins to put points on the board.
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