• Browns +6: The Browns are still a top-15 team in yards per play and expected points added (EPA) per play, and it feels quick to declare Watson a downgrade from former starting QB Jacoby Brissett.
• Seahawks -3.5: Back the better team with the better QB playing at home. Seattle covers this spread more often than not.
• Chargers +3.5: Miami's passing attack ranks just 26th among teams in EPA per play (-0.105) over the last three weeks and is about to face a secondary that has allowed an open target on just 44.7% of pass plays, the eighth-best rate in the NFL.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Last updated: Friday, Dec. 9, 10:00 pm ET
There's arguably no sport more difficult or exciting to bet on than NFL football. Information is both scarce in utility and abundant in opinion. Markets are so finely tuned and heavily wagered that there are few opportunities to gain an edge over the oddsmakers.
Enter a model capable of making ATS picks with long-term success.
It is important to note that these projections are not gospel but merely a compass toward identifying an edge in the razor-thin market that is betting NFL spreads.
Week 14 Best Bets
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns (+6)
Model Line: Bengals (-4)
The Bengals have likely reached their peak in the market following their upset victory over the Kansas City Chiefs last week.
Cincinnati has once again emerged as a trendy Super Bowl pick, and the public has quickly backed the Bengals in this spot — as of writing, 84% of bets have been placed on Cincy to cover the spread. Further, the team’s current ATS streak (17-3 dating back to last season) is unsustainable, which presents a great spot to sell high on Joe Burrow & Co and buy low on Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns.
Cleveland was awful on offense last week. Watson looked like he hadn’t played in nearly two seasons, earning a 55.8 PFF grade and averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt. But with that said, the Browns are still a top-15 team in yards per play and expected points added (EPA) per play, and it feels quick to declare Watson a downgrade from former starting QB Jacoby Brissett.
The line has overcorrected for the Bengals’ pristine run against the spread and is taking advantage of the public’s adoration of the team. This is a good number to back in a divisional matchup that the Browns have dominated of late.
Bet: Browns +6
Return: A $10 bet returns $19.09 on FanDuel — Click here to bet now!
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Model Line: Seahawks (-6)
Let’s remind ourselves who is starting at quarterback for the Carolina Panthers — Sam Darnold has been one of the worst QBs of this era and has gone just 7-18 against the spread on the road in his career. In his four years as a starting quarterback, he has never graded above 65.0 and has 20 more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws.
The Seahawks have stumbled over the past month, but Geno Smith continues to play at an elite level and his team has graded better than the Panthers in every facet.
The environment will also be particularly difficult for Darnold’s Panthers to navigate, as the “12th Man” has historically offered one of the greatest home-field advantages in the NFL.
Back the better team with the better QB playing at home. Seattle covers this spread more often than not.
Bet: Seahawks -3.5
Return: A $10 bet returns $18.70 on FanDuel — Click here to bet now!
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Model Line: Dolphins (-2.5)
Miami's passing attack grabbed the headlines early in the year, but it ranks just 26th among teams in EPA per play (-0.105) over the last three weeks and is about to face a secondary that has allowed an open target on just 44.7% of pass plays, the eighth-best rate in the league. Miami hasn't exactly been great on the road this season, either, going 2-4 against the spread.
For the first time all season, this week’s injury report perhaps favors the Chargers. Justin Herbert’s unit projects to return WR Mike Williams opposite Keenan Allen, and his presence should make the Chargers’ offense as formidable as it has been all season. Conversely, Miami's QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Jaylen Waddle and OT Terron Armstead are all nursing injuries.
The oddsmakers anticipate a close game, and this is a key number to grab in backing Los Angeles. If Miami’s offense replicates last week’s pedestrian performance, the Chargers have the playmakers necessary to hang around and perhaps steal this game outright.
Bet: Chargers +3.5
Return: A $10 bet returns $18.47 on FanDuel — Click here to bet now!
Tommy Jurgens' ATS picks are 27-22 this season (+2.8 units) and 18-9 (+8.1 units) since Week 7.
How the projections work:
A myriad of both objective and subjective ratings are employed in a logistic regression model to determine the likelihood that each team will win the game outright. By this determined win probability, a spread is assigned to each game and compared to the consensus line.
This model has successfully identified the outright victor at a near 67% rate and has chosen the ATS winner at an efficiency greater than 53% since 2006.
Find all of the projected picks for Week 13 here.
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