Thursday Night Football Staff Picks: Player props, spread bets and more

• Bet Stefon Diggs o6.5 receptions: New England is No. 1 in EPA/pass allowed yet struggles against elite pass catchers, most recently Justin Jefferson on Thanksgiving.

• New England plays the NFL's highest rate of single high, a coverage Josh Allen fares well against (top 10 in EPA) and Diggs should exploit vs a CB corps lacking a true No. 1.

• Bet Josh Allen o15.5 longest rush: He's over this number in 8/11 this season and five consecutive against Pats dating back to start of 2020 season.

Last updated: Dec. 1, 2:15 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 3 mins

Here are PFF staff best bets in Buffalo Bills–New England Patriots TNF in Week 13:

Ben Brown: Patriots TE Jonnu Smith — Under 1.5 receptions (+105 BetMGM)

• PFF Player Props tool's top TNF value, Smith going under his reception prop looks like the best bet to make Thursday night. After running nine total routes on Thanksgiving — his fewest since Week 7 — Smith has a 32.8% route percentage share this season.

• Hunter Henry is clearly the 1A tight end in Patriots offense, with Smith becoming more and more of an afterthought each week. If New England jumps out to an early lead, expect a heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson, with the secondary receiving options seeing little-to-no volume in the second half.

Without a manufactured target on the scripted play set, it looks highly unlikely that Smith will go over this number.

Tej Seth: Bills WR Stefon Diggs — Over 6.5 receptions (+100)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to -110

• While Bill Belichick has done great work with his defense this year, ranking 1st in EPA per pass allowed, his lack of a true No. 1 corner has left the Patriots susceptible to high-end receiving options. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle torched the Patriots defense, Mark Andrews dominated and they recently struggled with Justin Jefferson on Thanksgiving. Josh Allen is top-10 in EPA per pass against single high — which the Patriots play the most single high in the league — so Diggs can take advantage of their corners in man coverage.

Arjun Menon: Bills QB Josh Allen — Over 15.5 yards longest carry (-120 BetMGM)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 16.5

• Although Josh Allen's total rushing yards is enticing here as well, there could be a chance the Bills receivers have a lot of success vs a Patriots secondary that just got shredded a week ago, leading to fewer Allen scrambles. Instead, we can target Allen's longest rush prop. The Patriots play one of the highest rates of man coverage in the NFL, meaning the DBs in coverage don't play with their eyes on Allen. This makes scrambling easier and gives Allen a lot of room if he decides to take off.

• Several mobile QBs have cleared this number against the Patriots, including Sam Ehlinger (longest rush 19 yards), Justin Fields (20), and Lamar Jackson (38). Allen also has gone over this number in 8/11 games this season, and 5/5 games in the past 2 years vs the Patriots.

Judah Fortgang: Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson — Over 4.5 receptions (+100)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to -115

• He has averaged 7.5 targets over his past 5 games, coinciding with Stevenson taking over the Patriots backfield. Further bolstering the case for Stevenson is his high target share when the Patriots are behind — only Tyreek Hill has a higher target share than Stevenson when their teams are trailing. As 3.5-point underdogs, playing without Damien Harris, Mac Jones will find Stevenson early and often in the passing game.

PFF staff best bets are 94-94-2 entering Week 13.