• Arizona Cardinals -6.5 & QB Kyler Murray 300+ passing yards: The Steelers defense has allowed the second-highest rate of explosive pass plays and the third-highest rate of drives with explosive plays. Meanwhile, Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has been one of the league's most aggressive deep passers since returning from injury, producing the third-highest deep passing rate of the season, which aligns with his previous career rates.
• WR A.J. Brown 140+ yards, anytime TD & QB Jalen Hurts 300+ passing yards: Teams have passed more than expected against the Niners — more so than any other NFL team — suggesting that there will be plenty of volume to go around. With such a concentration of touches for the Eagles, Brown might receive targets in the teens, where he can truly pop for a ceiling game.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Story: QB Kyler Murray connects on some deep passes en route to an Arizona Cardinals win
• The Steelers defense has struggled to stop explosive plays this season . The group has allowed the second-highest rate of explosive pass plays and the third-highest rate of drives with explosive plays.
• Meanwhile, Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has been one of the league's most aggressive deep passers since returning from injury, producing the third-highest deep passing rate of the season, which aligns with his previous career rates.
• While the results have not shown up in the small sample this year, Murray ranks seventh at his position in deep-passing grade over his career.
• It is worth noting that the value here comes precisely because Kyler has yet to connect on those deep passes this season. This has left his prop at a low 205 yards, but I’d put more stock in his tendency to throw deep and his previous success doing so.
• Add in that Murray has been hesitant to run this season, and this might just be the game Kyler puts it all together through the air.
PointsBet SGP Build: 140-1
- QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 300+ passing yards
- Arizona Cardinals: -6.5
Story: Wide receiver Josh Downs continues his emergence in an Indianapolis Colts win
• We discussed a bullish case for the Colts' passing offense in Leveraging Tails this week, but this build narrows in on that story.
• Josh Downs has emerged as the WR2 for the Gardner Minshew-led Colts. He has been a target monster and one of the best in the NFL after the catch. And it is this dominance after the catch that gives Downs the chance to rack up yards in Week 13.
• Despite such a commanding share and dominance after the catch, Downs is priced with a low ceiling, likely because of his recent injury and previous role in a different offense with Anthony Richardson under center.
• When healthy (as he is now), Downs has been a frequent target. And the Colts, as we discussed, should be passing often and with success in this spot against the pass-funnel Titans.
PointsBet SGP Build: 30-1
- WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts: 6+ receptions
- WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts: 110+ receiving yards
- Indianapolis Colts: Moneyline
Story: Philadelphia Eagles’ A.J. Brown explodes against a San Francisco 49ers defense that filters targets to wide receivers
• A.J. Brown has put together another dominant campaign and sits atop the league in virtually every receiving statistic. He has dominated both at the catch point and after the catch.
• San Francisco filters targets to wide receivers. They have seen the third-most targets to the position, ranking 31st in the league in receptions allowed on those targets.
• Teams have passed more than expected against the Niners — more so than any other NFL team — suggesting that there will be plenty of volume to go around. With such a concentration of touches for the Eagles, Brown might receive targets in the teens, where he can truly pop for a ceiling game.
PointsBet SGP Build: 35-1
- WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: 140+ receiving yards
- WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Anytime TD
- QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 300+ passing yards
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