NFL Week 13 Player Prop Bets: TE Brevin Jordan, WR D.J. Chark Jr. and more

• TE Brevin Jordan, Houston Texans — over 24.5 receiving yards: This is really a bet on Jordan taking 100% of the injured Dalton Schultz’s snaps. The Texans typically don’t use a lot of 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends, two receivers), and Schultz is the main tight end in 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three wide receivers).

• TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots — over 2.5 receptions: This season, the Los Angeles Chargers have allowed 69 receptions to tight ends, the sixth-most in the league. The players they use to guard tight ends — Derwin James, Eric Kendricks and Kenneth Murray — have struggled in coverage this year, and none of them have a coverage grade above 63.0 this season.

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TE Brevin Jordan, Houston Texans: Over 24.5 receiving yards (-110)

• This is really a bet on Jordan taking 100% of the injured Dalton Schultz’s snaps. The Texans typically don’t use a lot of 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends, three receivers), and Schultz is the main tight end in 11 personnel.

• While Teagan Quitoriano has played more snaps overall, Jordan has actually run more routes, notably so last week when Schultz left due to injury.

• The Broncos have turned it around since their terrible start to the season, but they’ve still really struggled to cover tight ends and have allowed the most passing yards to the position.

• In recent weeks, we’ve seen David Njoku (59 yards), Josh Oliver (47), T.J. Hockenson (55), Dalton Kincaid (51), Travis Kelce (58) and Luke Musgrave (30) go over this total against Denver. If the Texans commit to Jordan as Schultz’s replacement, there should be enough volume to get at least 25 yards.

TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots: Over 2.5 receptions (-115)

• With Bailey Zappe starting at quarterback for the Patriots, we can expect him to pepper targets to Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry.

Patriots pass-catchers: Targets and adjusted target rate with Bailey Zappe at quarterback (since 2022)

• Last week, Zappe didn’t look Henry’s way once he was in the game, but the Giants are also one of the league's best teams at defending tight ends.

• This season, the Los Angeles Chargers have allowed 69 receptions to tight ends, the sixth-most in the league. The players they use to guard tight ends — Derwin James, Eric Kendricks and Kenneth Murray — have struggled in coverage this year, and none of them have a coverage grade above 63.0 this season.

WR D.J. Chark Jr., Carolina Panthers: Longest reception over 15.5 yards (-110)

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has not been great, as it ranks in the bottom 10 in both expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback and success rate allowed.

• Teams have been able to move the ball through the air against them and have also been able to generate explosive plays at a high rate. The Bucs have allowed an explosive play of 20-plus yards on 9.5% of their opponents' dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate among all defenses this year.

• Chark hasn’t been great for the Panthers this year, but his big-play ability is still there. He’s exceeded this number in seven of his nine games this season, and his 12.9-yard average target depth is the highest among all receivers on the team.

• The Bucs defense is also very banged up, so he could face much easier coverage this weekend.